- Republicans are more and more faltering in college towns.
- Counties where Democrats used to post modest wins have now become routine blowouts for the party.
In decades past, an array of US counties that contain some of the country's most prominent college towns were often closely split between Democrats and Republicans, reflective of the more liberal-oriented university centers and more moderate-to-conservative suburbs and exurbs balancing each other out.
But as many of these towns and cities have grown in population, combined with the Democratic Party's dominance among college-educated voters and those with advanced degrees, many of these counties have begun to rack up huge margins for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot. These wins are poised to threaten GOP competitiveness in key states like Georgia and Wisconsin in 2024 and beyond.
While Georgia has trended Republican for decades on the statewide level, the growing liberal strength in Athens — home of the University of Georgia — has boosted Democratic margins in Clarke County overall.
In 2000, then-Vice President Al Gore beat then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush in Athens-Clarke County 52.5%-41%, a solid victory for a Democratic candidate.
As the years went on, the margins moved dramatically in the Democratic direction as the party's presidential nominees won increasingly larger shares of the vote in Athens-Clarke County, even as Georgia remained a GOP-leaning state.
And the Peach State was also changing.
In 2020, now-President Joe Biden won Georgia by roughly 12,000 votes over then-President Donald Trump, flipping the Deep South state into the Democratic column. And Biden won Athens-Clarke with a whopping 70%-28% victory, posting a nearly 22,000-vote margin over Trump.
As Democrats continue to make inroads in Atlanta and its populous suburbs, margins like those in Athens-Clarke will make the difference for both parties.
With Democrats more aligned with most young votes on issues like voting rights, reproductive rights, student debt relief, climate change, and health care reform, the party has been able to cut into statewide margins to a degree that Republicans can no longer ignore if they want to remain viable as a party in key swing states.
Wisconsin is a similar scene. As one of the most politically-divided states in the country, even a slight shift in votes can affect statewide vote totals.
In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by less than 1 percent of the vote. Four years later, Biden also won the state by less than 1 percent of the vote.
And last year, GOP Sen. Ron Johnson won reelection to a third term over then-Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, but the race was decided by roughly 27,000 votes — or 1 percentage point.
Madison — the capital of Wisconsin and home to the flagship University of Wisconsin campus — has continued to attract new residents, fueling Democratic margins in fast-growing Dane County.
In 2000, Gore won Wisconsin by less than 6,000 votes (48.8%-48.6%) and won Dane by nearly 67,000 votes (61%-33%) over Bush.
But 20 years later, the Democratic coalition had shifted to one driven by urban and suburban voters. In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by roughly 20,000 votes (49.45%-48.8%) while he romped in Dane, winning the county with a 181,000-vote edge (75%-23%) over Trump.
Despite Trump's strength in many of the state's rural areas, Biden performed well enough in Dane and Milwaukee counties to flip Wisconsin in 2020.
Recently, Republican strategist Mark Graul — who ran Bush's 2004 campaign operation in Wisconsin — told Politico such developments present a major challenge for the GOP.
"This is a really big deal," he told the outlet. "What Democrats are doing in Dane County is truly making it impossible for Republicans to win a statewide race."