- Utah GOP Sen. Mike Lee won a third-term against independent Evan McMullin.
- Lee has compiled a conservative voting record, which would normally be fine in the GOP-heavy state.
Utah Republican Sen. Mike Lee has won a third term in the US Senate, defeating independent candidate Evan McMullin in a race that became increasingly personal in the closing days.
Decision Desk HQ and Insider project that Lee will beat McMullin, a former CIA officer who ran for president as an independent in 2016, as of 1:44 EST.
Utah Senate candidates
Lee, who in 2010 defeated then-Sen. Bob Bennett in a Republican convention before winning a party primary against businessman Tim Bridgewater, easily won the general election that year in the GOP-heavy state.
Since joining the Senate, Lee has compiled a conservative record, voting to repeal then-President Barack Obama's signature Affordable Care Act in 2015 while strongly backing then-President Donald Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017.
The senator, a former clerk to Associate Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, voted to confirm Trump's three nominees to the Supreme Court — Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.
And Lee himself was floated as a potential pick for the high court by Trump in 2018.
In the Senate, Lee serves on the Judiciary Committee, the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, the Joint Economic Committee, and the Special Committee on Aging.
But back at home, the lawmaker's political standing became shakier among some Republicans.
Unlike the rest of the country, where most GOP primaries in recent years morphed into a litmus test to gauge the level of loyalty to Trump, Lee was criticized by other Republicans running against him for what they called his lack of independence from the former president.
While the senator won the GOP primary with 62% of the vote, his two opponents — former state Rep. Becky Edwards and Ally Isom — both captured a sizable 38% of voters.
After Lee compared Trump to a prophet in the Book of Mormon at an October 2020 rally, many conservative members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints expressed dismay.
McMullin, a former Republican who performed strongly in Utah in the 2016 presidential race — winning nearly 22% of the statewide vote as an independent and holding Trump below 50% of the vote — criticized Lee in an advertisement over the senator's comments at an Arizona rally for the then-president two years ago.
And the independent candidate, whom the state Democratic Party backed in lieu of putting up their own nominee, has vowed to be a bipartisan bridge-builder, calling out Lee for what he says are the GOP lawmaker's raft of "no" votes in the Senate.
If elected, McMullin has vowed not to join either the Democratic or Republican caucuses, stating that it is his intent to be an independent voice who can work effectively with both parties.
Sen. Mitt Romney — the 2012 GOP presidential nominee who in 2018 was elected to represent Utah in the Senate — has declined to endorse Lee, citing his friendship with both candidates. Romney has routinely expressed misgivings about Trump and said he did not vote for him in the 2020 presidential election.
However, Lee recently appeared on Fox News and directly appealed to Romney for his support in the race, asking him to "please get on board."
Voting history in Utah
Utah has long been one of the most reliably Republican states in the country.
Republicans have won every presidential race in the state since 1968, often with landslide margins, and the last Democrat to win a Senate race in the state was Frank Moss in 1970.
In the 2020 presidential election, Trump defeated now-President Joe Biden in Utah by 20 points (58%-38%), a significant drop from Romney's sweeping victory (73%-25%) over Obama in 2012.
Democrats Jim Matheson and Ben McAdams represented the state's Salt Lake City-area congressional district within the past 20 years, but Republican-led redistricting after the 2020 Census made the district much more friendly to the GOP. (McAdams narrowly lost his reelection bid to now-Republican Rep. Burgess Owens in 2020.)
The money race
According to OpenSecrets, Lee raised nearly $10.7 million, spent $9.7 million, and had $1.3 million in cash on hand, as of October 19. McMullin raised $6.9 million, spent $5.8 million, and had almost $1.1 million in the bank, as of October 19.
As of November 7, super PACs, politically active nonprofit organizations, and other non-candidate groups have combined to spend an additional $19.2 million advocating for or against the candidates, which also included the GOP primary. The majority of this spending has benefitted Lee.
What experts say
The race between Lee and McMullin was rated as "likely Republican" by Inside Elections, "likely Republican" by The Cook Political Report, and "likely Republican" by Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.