Democratic Sen. Tina Smith wins Minnesota against Republican Jason Lewis

• Democratic Sen. Tina Smith won the Minnesota Senate race against Republican Jason Lewis, according to projections from Decision Desk HQ.
• Smith was appointed to former Sen. Al Franken's US Senate seat when he resigned from office in December 2017, and then won a 2018 special election to serve out the rest of Franken's term until 2021.
• Lewis, her Republican opponent, is a former talk radio host who previously represented Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District for a term.
• See the live coverage and full results from the U.S. Senate elections

Democratic Sen. Tina Smith won the Minnesota Senate race against Republican Jason Lewis, according to projections from Decision Desk HQ.

The candidates

Smith, Minnesota's former lieutenant governor, was appointed to former Sen. Al Franken's US Senate seat when he resigned from office in December 2017, and went on to win a 2018 special election to serve out the rest of Franken's term until 2021.

Smith was running for her first full term for the seat. She currently serves on four US Senate committees, including the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, and the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP).

In the Senate, she's heavily focused on healthcare issues, including expanding coverage, reducing prescription drug costs, and combatting the opioid crisis in Minnesota.

Smith's opponent, Lewis, is a former talk radio host who previously represented Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District in the suburbs southeast of the Twin Cities for one term from 2017 to 2019. He was unseated in 2018 by Democratic challenger Rep. Angie Craig.

Lewis' campaign message focused on revitalizing Minnesota's economy, particularly the mining communities in the state's Iron Range, protecting the 2nd Amendment, and supporting law enforcement.

The stakes

In addition to winning back the White House, regaining control of the US Senate for the first time since 2015 is a top priority for Democrats and would be a major accomplishment towards either delivering on a future president Joe Biden's policy goals or thwarting President Donald Trump's second-term agenda.

Currently, the US Senate is made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents that caucus with Democrats, winning that Democrats need to win back a net total of four seats to have a 51-seat majority (if Biden wins, his vice president would also serve as president of the Senate and would be a tie-breaker vote).

In the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats flipped two Republican-controlled seats, the 2nd and 3rd Districts, in the Twin Cities area. They lost control of two seats in rural Minnesota, the 1st District in the Southern part of the state, and the 8th District in the mountainous Iron Range region in Northern Minnesota.

This year, Republicans were hoping to build on their gains in 2018 in rural areas and are aiming to target Minnesota in both the electoral college and the Senate.

But Democratic candidate Joe Biden won the state, with 52.56% of the vote.

See Insider's full guide to the race for the US Senate here

The money race

Smith substantially outraised and outspent Lewis in the cycle, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. She's brought in at least $13.9 million, spent $11.4 million, and had $2.9 million in cash on hand compared to $4.8 million raised, $3.4 million spent, and $1.4 million in cash on hand for Lewis.

What the polling said

The latest poll of the race conducted by Civiqs for the Daily Kos October 17-20 found Smith leading Lewis by 11 points, 54% to 43%, among likely voters, while a SurveyUSA/KSTP poll conducted October 16-20 found Smith ahead by just one point, 43% to 42%.

See the live coverage and full results from the U.S. presidential election.

What some of the experts said

The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rated the race between Smith and Lewis as "safe Democratic," while Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics rates it "likely Democratic."

According to FiveThirtyEight, Smith had a 92% chance of winning her reelection bid in November. Smithwasis expected to receive 55% of the popular vote, or 13 points more than Lewis.