Putin is 'still convinced he can prevail' in Ukraine, and other nearby countries 'could be at risk of attack' if he wins, top Russia experts warn

• The outcome of the Ukraine war will determine the safety of the wider region, Angela Stent and Fiona Hill warn.
• Putin's "appetite for expansion would not stop at the Ukrainian border" if Russia wins, they said in a new op-ed.

Russia has faced serious military setbacks in Ukraine since it invaded roughly a year ago, but Russian President Vladimir Putin is still convinced that his forces could emerge victorious, according to top Russia experts Angela Stent and Fiona Hill.

"Even now, after a year of carnage, Putin is still convinced he can prevail," Stent and Hill wrote in a new op-ed for Foreign Affairs.

The Russian leader's "appetite for expansion would not stop at the Ukrainian border" if Russia wins the war, warn Stent, who served as national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council from 2004 to 2006, and Hill, who was the top Russia expert on the National Security Council during the Trump administration.

"The Baltic states, Finland, Poland, and many other countries that were once part of Russia's empire could be at risk of attack or subversion. Others could see challenges to their sovereignty in the future," they wrote. "The war is about more than Ukraine. Kyiv is also fighting to protect other countries."

Putin has often pointed to Russia's imperial past when offering justifications for the war in Ukraine, at one point likening himself to Peter the Great.

As the war in Ukraine approaches the one-year mark, Hill and Stent made the case that the West needs to make a more concerted effort to communicate to Putin that his relationship with Europe "will soon be irreparable" and step up international diplomatic efforts to deter the Russian leader from taking escalatory actions — such as the use of nuclear weapons or a renewed assault on Kyiv.

"The world cannot always contain Putin, but clear communications and stronger diplomatic measures may help push him to curtail some of his aggression and eventually agree to negotiations," Hill and Stent said.

Though Russia is estimated to have suffered substantial casualties, possibly nearing 200,000, in the war so far, Putin has shown no signs of giving up. According to NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, Russia has already begun a new offensive in the east, and Putin is willing to endure high casualties to achieve his goal of conquering the Donbas region.

Putin "is sending thousands and thousands of more troops, accepting a very high rate of casualty, taking big losses, but putting pressure on the Ukrainians. And what Russia lacks in quality, they try to compensate in quantity," Stoltenberg said on Monday.

Stoltenberg urged the West to speed up the delivery of crucial weapons to Ukraine as it defends territory against the Russian invaders and vies to reclaim occupied regions.