Putin is scared of punishing Prigozhin in case the Wagner chief turns against him, says ex-Kremlin official

• Speculation is circulating about why Putin isn't punishing Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.
• Prigozhin is increasingly brazen in his criticism of Russian military leaders.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is reluctant to punish Yevgeny Prigozhin, commander of the Wagner Group mercenary outfit, for a series of increasingly brazen attacks on Russia's military leaders, a former Kremlin official said.

In recent weeks Prigozhin, whose private military force has played a key role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has accused Russian military leaders of botching the invasion in a series of profanity-filled videos.

Last week, he said his mercenary army will not continue fighting in Ukraine if the war effort continues to be "led by clowns who turn people into meat."

Such public acts of defiance are rare in Russia, where thousands who've criticized the war have been arrested. The Wagner chief's attacks have prompted speculation he may even be planning a coup against Putin.

In comments to The Washington Post, Abbas Gallyamov, a political analyst and former Kremlin speechwriter, said that Putin couldn't afford to alienate hardline nationalists such as Prigozhin.

"The regime simply cannot afford to repress representatives of the 'patriotic' camp, which is already not very pleased with the president: He unleashed the war, but still cannot win it," he told the Post.

"If they put pressure on this part of the public," Gallyamov said, "they will [turn] into opposition and say, 'It turns out Putin's critics were right and he really turned into a dictator.'"

The Kremlin has faced mounting criticism over how the war is being waged from nationalists, who say Russia has not pursued victory aggressively enough and has botched the invasion.

The Kremlin apparently expected a swift victory in Ukraine, but the war has become a protracted stalemate, with Ukraine in recent days making some gains as part of its summer offensive, Reuters reported.

Former intelligence officials told Insider recently that Putin could face challenges to his power if Russia is defeated by Ukraine and its forces ousted from the country. Prigozhin may be among the figures positioning himself to try and seize power.

Other analysts have offered differing explanations for why Putin hasn't acted against Prigozhin, with Insider reporting in May that the Kremlin was heavily dependent on the Wagner Group during the grueling battle to seize control of Bakhmut, east Ukraine. Others point to the fact that Putin has long stirred fierce internal competition.

Gallyamov, who lives in self-imposed exile abroad, has been critical of Putin and the war in Ukraine, and in April was placed on a wanted list by the Russian Interior Ministry.