- Russia named a new chief of its forces in Ukraine on Wednesday.
- The new boss, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, is taking over just three months after his successor.
The decision to demote the commander of Russia's forces in Ukraine just three months after he was tapped for the job is a sign that Russian President Vladimir Putin is contending with an internal "power struggle," according to a new assessment from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russia's Ministry of Defense on Wednesday said it was replacing Gen. Sergei Surovikin as commander of its forces in Ukraine with Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff — the nation's highest-ranking military officer.
The move was "highly likely to have been in part a political decision to reassert the primacy of the Russian MoD in an internal Russian power struggle," ISW said, explaining that Surovikin is a "favorite" of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group who has been critical of Gerasmiov and the Russian Ministry of Defense that oversees most of the Russian forces fighting. Ukrainian intelligence has also suggested that Surovkin is a rival of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, ISW said.
Gerasimov's assignment is likely an effort to weaken the influence of critics of the Russian Ministry of Defense and "a signal for Prigozhin and other actors to reduce their criticism of the MoD," per ISW's assessment. Their pointed and public criticism of Russia's military commanders has undermined the mass mobilization ordered by Putin, with a possibility it could put the lie to officially sanctioned accounts of the war and even lead to conflict between the well-connected elites upon which Putin's rule depends.
ISW said Gerasimov's appointment was also designed to "support an intended decisive Russian military effort in 2023, likely in the form of resumed Russian offensive operations." Other security analysts who focus on Russia, such as Mark Galeotti, have offered similar assessments.
Gerasmiov being named commander of Russia's forces in Ukraine is "confirmation, if we needed it, that there will be serious offensives coming" from Russia, Galeotti said in tweets, adding that he suspects Putin "has unrealistic expectations again."
Russian leaders expected a swift victory in Ukraine, but instead has suffered staggering losses over nearly 11 months and seen its military embarrassed and downgraded on the global stage.
After failing to take Kyiv in the early months of the war, Russia turned its attention to Ukraine's east. Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in August that saw it regain significant chunks of occupied territory over the weeks that followed, and by November saw Russian forces retreat from Kherson — the first major city Russia captured after invading.
Russia has since focused much of its efforts on taking the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, leading to heavy, fierce fighting. The pace of the fighting has slowed significantly since the initial days of the invasion, with the conflict morphing into a grinding war of attrition. It's unclear whether the recent change in leadership in Ukraine will drastically alter Russia's narrowing options on the battlefield.
"Gerasimov will likely preside over a disorganized command structure plagued by endemic, persistent, and self-reinforcing failures that he largely set into motion in his initial role before the invasion of Ukraine," ISW said.