- Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly back in Russia after revolting against Putin's military leaders.
- Former spies were baffled by the development given that Putin has had opponents imprisoned and killed for far less.
Less than two weeks after spearheading an armed rebellion against Russian President Vladimir Putin's military leaders and being exiled to Belarus, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is apparently back in Russia.
It's a shocking and confusing development for former spooks, who told Insider that it may indicate the Russian leader's grip on power is more tenuous than it seems.
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said this week that Prigozhin returned to his home city of St. Petersburg, and may have even flown to Moscow on Thursday morning. The local news outlet Fontanka also reported that Prigozhin was seen arriving outside the FSB building in St. Petersburg on Tuesday and was given back some of his weapons.
"The thought that immediately comes to mind is this is a sign of Putin's weakness" amid Russia's continued losses in the Ukraine war, Glenn Carle, a former CIA spy who was stationed in Russia, told Insider. It indicates that "there are various factions that Putin has to placate" and that Prigozhin "has supporters within the power structure that Putin can't afford to cross."
John McLaughlin, the former acting director of the CIA, echoed that view.
"Even though there is a law providing for 15 years in prison if you speak against the war," if Prigozhin maintains his freedom, it would mean that an "actual mutineer will have been allowed to go free," McLaughlin said.
Putin has long been accused of ordering the imprisonment and assassinations of those he deemed disloyal or threatening. His government is believed to be behind the attempted poisonings of the former spy Sergei Skripal and Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, both of whom were targets of the Kremlin.
Prigozhin, for now at least, is an anomaly in that he's been allowed back into Russia after leading an armed rebellion against key Russian military officials.
Lukashenko, one of Putin's closest allies, negotiated the end of Prigozhin's armed rebellion against the Russian president's government last month. Prigozhin was initially supportive of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but he later turned on Russia's military leadership, accusing them of sabotaging the Ukrainian war effort.
Prigozhin launched a "march for justice" towards Moscow last month. But he announced he was turning back only a few hours from Moscow, saying he did not want to risk Russian blood being shed. British intelligence sources told The Telegraph that Prigozhin called off the advance after Russian officials threatened the families of Wagner leaders if they continued.
McLaughlin told Insider that the Wagner chief's return to Russia may indicate one of two things: he's acting "in defiance of Moscow" or "under some unrevealed terms of the agreement that permit him to wrap up his business there before settling in Belarus."
His continued presence in Russia is also a unique dilemma for Putin: risk looking weak by allowing a man whose actions he described as a "stab in the back" to roam freely, or move against a man who remains relatively popular in Russia, especially with the ultranationalist community supporting the Ukraine war.
Lukashenko said this week that Putin is not "malicious or vindictive" enough to have Prigozhin killed. He also insisted that Prigozhin is "free," saying Tuesday that they had spoken "several times on the phone" and discussed Wagner's "further actions."
Russian state media outlets, for their part, are continuing to excoriate Prigozhin and claiming that the inquiry into his actions is ongoing. That's despite the fact that Russian authorities said late last month that they had closed the criminal investigation following Prigozhin's rebellion.
Russian citizens are likely "as confused as the rest of us about this," McLaughlin said. "That can't be good for Putin."
Carle agreed, saying that even if Prigozhin succumbed to Russian authorities' reported threats against his family, it was puzzling for Putin to allow him back into the country.
It "lends credence to the view that Putin has been weakened by all of this," he said. "Maybe he clearly is stumbling."