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  5. Political gridlock is delaying another coronavirus relief bill — and it has potentially devastating consequences for the US economy

Political gridlock is delaying another coronavirus relief bill — and it has potentially devastating consequences for the US economy

Joseph Zeballos-Roig   

Political gridlock is delaying another coronavirus relief bill — and it has potentially devastating consequences for the US economy
Politics3 min read
  • Congress hasn't passed another federal relief bill ahead of Election Day because of political gridlock.
  • It may have devastating consequences for millions of workers and small businesses.
  • Lawmakers could act during a lame-duck session after the election, but it's unclear whether President Donald Trump would support a bill.
  • Millions of people could lose unemployment benefits absent more congressional action, and even more layoffs could happen in the battered travel and hospitality industries.

Congress has not passed another economic rescue package ahead of Election Day — and political gridlock threatens to delay federal aid for millions of people and small businesses, with potentially disastrous consequences.

The US is experiencing a sharp spike in coronavirus infections, with cases reaching record highs, according to a New York Times database. Colder weather will also move people indoors, limiting outdoor dining at restaurants and other activities.

"All signs suggest that we're in for the worst of this at the same time the situation in Washington is also becoming its worst and most horrible," Michael Strain, an economic expert at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank, told The Washington Post on Monday.

Most of the aid Congress authorized through the CARES Act earlier this spring for unemployed people and small businesses ended in August. President Donald Trump has signaled support for another coronavirus relief plan, though White House economic officials have argued that the economy is in a self-sustaining recovery.

Negotiations between Democrats and the White House on another large stimulus package appear to have ground to another halt after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin criticized each other last week. Many Senate Republicans have said they wouldn't support spending another large sum of money, citing the growing national debt.

That stalemate may push the passage of a coronavirus relief bill into early next year, unless lawmakers strike an agreement during a lame-duck session in December, when they must act to prevent a government shutdown. It's also unclear whether Trump's position will change after the election.

Here's how the lack of a stimulus plan could stymie the economic recovery.

Read more: MORGAN STANLEY: Here's how to trade the assets that have the most riding on Tuesday's elections — plus 5 investors can count on no matter who wins

Unemployment benefits will end for millions of people without legislation from Congress by the end of December

Weekly $600 federal unemployment payouts ended in late July and haven't been replaced. People are receiving state unemployment checks averaging $330 a week.

But millions of people could exhaust their base benefits by the end of the year while unemployment remains elevated.

In addition, the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, which is aiding up to 10.3 million gig workers and freelancers who are not typically covered by state unemployment systems, is set to expire on December 31.

Many more small businesses could go bankrupt

A small-business aid initiative called the Paycheck Protection Program stopped accepting applications in early August. It provided low-interest, forgivable loans to small businesses that kept employees on payrolls. But it provided relief for only about 2 1/2 months.

Over 100,000 small businesses have closed because of the pandemic — and many more are still at risk.

A September survey released by the National Restaurant Association found that about 40% of restaurant operators said they thought they would close within the next six months without further relief.

Industries grappling with pandemic-related slowdowns could face even more layoffs

The travel and hospitality industries have struggled to stay afloat as fears of the virus compel people to limit their activities. Work-from-home policies and travel warnings eroded business travel, a key component of hotel and airline earnings.

Airlines including United and American have furloughed over 30,000 workers, while companies like Disney have cut tens of thousands of jobs.

In an industry survey from the American Hotel and Lodging Association in September, 67% of respondents said they would last only six more months without additional government assistance.

Other large companies are also shedding jobs. Boeing has announced over 7,000 layoffs. Exxon Mobil said it would cut 1,900 jobs in the US.

A moratorium on evictions is expiring

The Trump administration implemented an eviction moratorium covering all rental properties in early September.

But the measure didn't attach any financial relief, meaning renters will be on the hook for missed monthly payments when it ends in December.

The bill could amount to thousands of dollars for renters. Up to 40 million Americans are at risk of getting evicted when the moratorium expires, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition.

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