Panicked over the potential end of Roe v. Wade, Democrats are now realizing they need to start taking state legislature races seriously to save abortion access

• A Supreme Court case that may end Roe v. Wade is forcing Democrats pay attention to state races.
• Most abortion policy is set at the state level, and Republicans have dominated that landscape.

The US Supreme Court's looming decision in an abortion case that could roll back reproductive rights for millions of women across the country has woken Democrats up to a long-simmering problem for the party: It's time to focus on winning state legislatures.

After more than a decade of heavy investments at the state level, Republicans hold a trifecta — the governorship and both chambers of a state legislature — in 23 states. Democrats, on the other hand, have such control in 14 states.

State legislatures, where Republicans advance their agenda on culture war issues like abortion, restrictions on transgender rights, and teaching the history of race in America in schools, have long been the overlooked stepchild of Democratic politics. But the impending demise of Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court decision that guarantees a constitutional right to an abortion until fetal viability, or about 23 weeks, has given Democrats who organize at the state level a new sense of urgency.

"Given gridlock or inaction of the US Senate or federal government in general, we know the most effective ways to protect reproductive rights is to organize and protect Democrats and win state legislative races," said Heather Williams, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.

But historically, she said, Democratic legislative races and the DLCC have been underfunded. "We've had to compete with federal races and that has been an enormous challenge," Williams added.

That underinvestment has had major consequences for abortion access, she said, which is one of the Democratic Party's core policy tenets. Meanwhile, Republicans have continued to elect abortion opponents in key state positions, and they've succeeded in pushing the issue up to the conservative-leaning Supreme Court. Democrats' lack of legislative power in states like Florida, Texas, Mississippi, and others has made it difficult for them to advance legislation that would expand voting rights, protect LGBTQ rights, and have a hand in the once-a-decade redistricting decisions.

A historic lack of investment

For the past two decades, Democrats have focused most of their attention and fundraising firepower on federal races, for Congress and the White House.

"There's a level of celebrity attached to federal races," said Steve Phillips, a co-founder of Democracy in Color. Most Democratic donors and consultants are drawn to "people who are on the news and run for president," he said, to the detriment of local candidates.

While Black, Latina, immigrant, and low-income women, especially those who live in southern states, are most likely to endure the greatest impact from a demise of Roe v. Wade, there is a disconnect between "who is in leadership, versus who is most intensely feeling the pain" in the Democratic Party, Phillips said.

While women of color, such as voting rights activist and Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, have led the charge in building state-level Democratic infrastructure, they have not historically been the candidates that receive investment from mainstream Democrats, Phillips said.

"Many people in the top echelons of donor world and political world are far more tantalized by a fancy new tech tool and the young, fast-talking white guy than they are with the door-to-door voter mobilization effort run by a Latina immigrant," Phillips added.

That's starting to change, however. And it's in part thanks to urgency over abortion access, Williams said.

Abortion advocates prepare for a disappointing SCOTUS decision

At some point between May and June, both abortion advocates and anti-choice activists expect the Supreme Court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, to uphold a 15-week abortion ban from Mississippi after the justices heard oral arguments in December. At the heart of the case is whether laws that prohibit abortion pre-viability — or when a fetus cannot survive outside the womb — are unconstitutional. The Mississippi law clearly violates Roe v. Wade, and upholding it would be in direct conflict with existing federal precedent.

But should the Supreme Court uphold the contested law, or strike down Roe v. Wade altogether in its ruling as the state of Mississippi has asked, it would allow more restrictive legislation in Republican-controlled states to go forward.

"The landscape is one where we need reproductive health champions in office up and down the ballot," said Samuel Lau, a spokesperson for the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, which is the political arm of Planned Parenthood.

"So much of a person's day-to-day access is based on policies implemented at a state or local level," Lau said. "States that are hostile to abortion access right now have put up many unnecessary abortion restrictions that sometimes have the effect of putting abortion out of reach for far too many people even with Roe the law of the land."

Fundraising for the DLCC has increased at a steady clip, from $16 million in the 2016 cycle to a record $51 million in 2020, according to Williams. The organization raised $21 million during 2021's off-year election cycle. But that's pennies compared to the national organizations like the Democratic National Committee, which raised $492,683,091 in the 2020 cycle, or the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which hauled in $303,883,335 in that year's election, according to OpenSecrets.

Republicans have used their power in the states they control to attempt to pass waves of legislation that severely restrict or outlaw abortion within their borders. Many of these bills violate Roe v. Wade.

Judicial precedent has not stopped Republican-controlled legislatures from passing, and Republican governors from signing, bills that flagrantly violate the longstanding judicial precedent. A total of 26 states would likely move to ban or seriously restrict abortion should the Supreme Court weaken or eliminate Roe v. Wade, according to the Guttmacher Institute, which studies reproductive policies and access in the US.

On March 3, the Florida legislature passed a bill that would ban abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy — and is currently unconstitutional. It now heads to the desk of Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, a staunch conservative.

Last year, Texas passed a novel law that allowed anyone to sue a person or entity that facilitated an abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, effectively outlawing the procedure in the state. The Supreme Court notably decided not to intervene in the case, and abortion care has been severely restricted in Texas as the law faces court battles.

Heading into 2022, groups like the DLCC and Planned Parenthood Action Fund are primed to make abortion an issue as Democrats seek to make gains in state legislatures. The Democratic National Committee did not immediately respond to a request for comment on their plans for 2022.

The DLCC has launched a "States to Save Roe" website, which outlines the stakes for abortion access before guiding visitors to donate to the organization. Williams also said that the DLCC, and pro-choice Democratic groups that organize in elections, were prepared to make abortion a front-and-center issue during state races.

"If Roe falls this year, 2022 will be the first general election that we have not had Roe as the law of the land," Williams said. "And I think that impact is one that we all need to be prepared for."