Only 10 presidents have not won reelection, and polling suggests Trump could join them

Getty/Chip Somodevilla

• Only 10 incumbent presidents in US history have won their party's nomination but failed to win reelection.
• Election polling has suggested Trump's chances of reelection have been dwindling for months, as voters also express disapproval of his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Trump is trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in the national polls, as well as in a number of key battleground states.
• Though nothing is guaranteed, polling suggests Trump could join a short list of incumbents who failed to win a second term.

In recent US history, incumbent presidents have often enjoyed a significant boost in popularity while running for reelection.

This has not been the case for President Donald Trump. When Trump officially launched his reelection bid in June 2019, his approval rating was around 43%, according to Gallup. Trump's approval rating has barely fluctuated since then, with short-lived gains here and there.

Polling from Gallup in September and October shows Trump's approval rating fluctuated between 42% and 46%, averaging 44%.

For months, election polling has suggested Trump's chances of reelection have been dwindling during the economic recession and the president's disastrous response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trump is trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by a significant margin in the national polls.

The president is also behind Biden in crucial battleground states with large numbers of electoral votes such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida, per FiveThirtyEight, all states he narrowly carried in his stunning upset win in 2016.

Simply put, Trump could join the short list of incumbent presidents who weren't reelected.