Newly released Georgia Senate runoff poll finds Democratic candidates with widening leads

• The two Georgia Senate runoff elections next Tuesday will decide whether Republicans maintain control of the Senate.
• If Jon Ossoff and the Rev. Raphael Warnock both win, Democrats will control the legislative and executive branches, allowing for Joe Biden to more easily accomplish his legislative goals.
• A newly released poll from JMC Analytics and Polling found Warnock and Ossoff leading over Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue as early votes are cast.
• JMC is one of just a handful of pollsters participating in the Senate runoffs — many of the most recognized and reputable pollsters have not conducted any polls since the general election in November.

Jon Ossoff and the Rev. Raphael Warnock, the two Democratic US Senate candidates in Georgia, widened their leads against Republican Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler in a new poll from JMC Analytics and Polling.

The JMC poll, conducted with 500 respondents on Monday and Tuesday, found Ossoff ahead of Perdue 50% to 43%, or 7 points, with 7% of respondents saying they were undecided.

The divide between Warnock and Loeffler in the poll was even larger: Warnock was ahead 53% to 44%, or 9 points, with 3% of respondents saying they were undecided.

JMC's poll was its first of the Senate runoff elections. A recent survey conducted by SurveyUSA found Ossoff with a 5-percentage-point lead and Warnock with a 7-point lead. And according to FiveThirtyEight's polling tracker, the margin of support has steadily increased for the Democratic candidates in polls conducted since the general election on November 3.

When JMC asked how and when its respondents planned to vote, 91% said they had already voted or planned to vote early in person or by mail, while 7% said they planned to vote on Election Day on Tuesday.

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In November, about 20% of the state's votes were cast on Election Day. JMC's poll suggests that Loeffler and Perdue would need to receive far more of Georgia's 2.6 million early votes than expected to win.

The two elections will directly affect the beginning of Joe Biden's presidency. If Ossoff and Warnock win, the Democratic Party will have control of the legislative and executive branches, allowing Biden to more easily accomplish his legislative goals.

But while JMC's poll is a good sign for Democrats, it is one of only a handful of pollsters that have participated in the Georgia Senate runoffs.

Hundreds of polls were conducted throughout the country before the 2020 general election; some were grossly off and led to backlash.

Nick Gourevitch, a Democratic pollster with Global Strategy Group, recently told Politico that trusting the accuracy of polls in Georgia following the tumultuous presidential polling would be a mistake.

"Everybody fundamentally understands that it's going to become an issue of partisan turnout," Gourevitch said. "And anybody who tells you they know exactly what's going to happen in terms of partisan turnout in a special election with two senators to decide control of the Senate in a post-Trump era when he's not on the [ballot] - nobody knows the answer to that question. It's a completely unique situation."

Nate Silver, the editor-in-chief and founder of FiveThirtyEight, said the answer was even simpler. "I think pollsters are being chicken," he said on FiveThirtyEight's podcast on Tuesday.

Since the general election, FiveThirtyEight has tracked just 20 polls, many of which have come from smaller, less experienced polling groups.

"You are not polling," Silver said of many of the large university-aligned pollsters, "because you are scared of being wrong."

He added: "Pollsters don't want to put their necks on the line because we live in a world where people are not very rational about probabilities and uncertainty."

Trump's recent defiance of the GOP is not helping the Republican candidates

Though Loeffler and Perdue have run as allies of President Donald Trump, he has put them in difficult political positions during their campaigns.

The president traveled to the state on December 5 to headline a rally on their behalf, but he mostly used the event to air his own grievances about the presidential election, repeatedly making baseless claims of voter fraud and falsely saying he won the state over Biden.

Trump has jousted with top Georgia Republicans from Gov. Brian Kemp to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, creating a sense of political disunity that the Republican candidates can't afford in races against well-funded Democratic challengers who have strong support from Biden and the party base.

The president's pressure campaign against the state's election results drove Loeffler and Perdue last month to call for Raffensperger's resignation, which the secretary of state firmly rejected.

Warnock and Ossoff have for months been pressing for increased direct aid in a COVID-19 relief bill, and it has emerged as a major campaign issue in both Senate races.

Loeffler and Perdue had expressed support for the $900 billion compromise bill that Congress passed last week. But after the president called the $600 stimulus checks in it a "disgrace," Perdue and Loeffler backed his proposal for $2,000 checks.

Previously, Loeffler was on the fence about larger stimulus payments. Perdue has generally opposed stimulus checks - something Ossoff has highlighted in his campaign.

Though Trump isn't on the ballot, his legacy is at stake. Loeffler and Perdue still have to closely align themselves with the president to win or risk turning off his most ardent supporters.

With control of the Senate on the line and Democrats in a solid position to capture both seats, Loeffler and Perdue will have to increase turnout on their side, or a blue wave could give Biden a unified government to enact his agenda.

• Read more:
• The US Postal Service is pulling out all the stops to rush mail-in ballots for the Georgia runoff election
• The ex-wife of Raphael Warnock, one of the Democrats in Georgia's Senate runoffs, accused him of running over her foot during an argument in newly released footage
• More than 100 pastors call on Loeffler to stop spreading 'reprehensible falsehoods' about Warnock, denouncing them as an 'attack against the Black Church'
• GOP Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue support Trump's push for direct $2,000 stimulus checks