- North Korea's Kim Jong Un and Russia's Vladimir Putin are meeting in Vladivostok.
- Putin will likely be seeking a weapons deal from the summit amid ammo shortages in Ukraine.
The last time North Korean leader Kim Jong Un took his bullet-proof train to visit Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok, the dynamic between the leaders was very different.
Back then, in 2019, Putin played the role of the global power broker, seeking to reach a nuclear deal with Kim after negotiations between then-President Donald Trump and the reclusive North Korean leader broke down.
But this time, it's Kim who has the upper hand, and many fear his new alliance with Putin will make him a formidable force.
As Russia's invasion of Ukraine drags on, the Russian military is low on ammunition and other equipment, and Putin will likely be seeking from Kim a weapons deal to bolster front-line supplies, US officials told The New York Times last week.
Putin, like Kim, is now a global pariah, subject to an international arrest warrant over war crimes in Ukraine and only able to count on a dwindling number of allies as he seeks to tackle Russia's spiraling economic and military woes.
Kim will likely drive a hard bargain in providing Putin with the weapons and support he needs, and it's a situation of mounting concern to the US and its regional allies who've imposed elaborate sanctions over decades to isolate North Korea.
Analysts say that Kim could secure valuable military technology from Putin, including satellites and nuclear-powered submarines.
"Russia-North Korea co-operation may extend beyond conventional arms deals and food/energy assistance, possibly to advanced technology for satellites, nuclear-power submarines, and ballistic missiles," wrote Victor Cha and Ellen Kim at CSIS, a Washington-based think-tank.
Kim could additionally secure a pledge from Putin for increased military cooperation between the states. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on a visit to North Korea in August suggested that the nations could take part in joint naval exercises, which would mark a major triumph for Kim in his bid to break North Korea's isolation and bolster his regime.
But analysts say that even if Russia backs away from providing Kim with extensive weapons and technology support, the seemingly more modest step of providing fuel, food, and medicine for the ailing and impoverished North Korea could boost the economy and accelerate its nuclear program.
"If Russia pays in oil and food, it can revive the North Korea economy, which in turn could then also strengthen North Korea's weapons system. It is an extra source of income for them that they didn't have," Yang Uk, a research fellow at the Asian Institute for Policy Studies, told BBC News.
This is particularly jarring given Russia's membership of the UN Security Council, and its role in imposing waves of sanctions aimed at cutting off North Korea's nuclear program.
But Putin, at this stage, likely sees challenging US influence in Asia, by bolstering North Korea, as a bigger priority.
"The demise of the post-cold war world and the return of bloc mentality tend to encourage these kinds of realignments," wrote Sergey Radchenk a professor at the Henry A Kissinger Center, in The Guardian.
"The elephant in the room is Pyongyang's longtime sponsor China, which has also been drawing closer to Russia by the logic of its own deepening conflict with the US. The last time these three countries were on the same wavelength was in the late 1940s to early 1950s, which cannot be described as a happy time for north-east Asia."
In the tumult that's resulted from the Ukraine war, Kim, a canny and ruthless player, could yet emerge as one of the big winners.