Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is projected to win reelection in Maine's 2nd Congressional District against Republican Dale Crafts

• The first-term Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is projected to win against the Republican Dale Crafts in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ.
• Golden is a US Marine veteran who flipped the seat to Democratic control in 2018, while Crafts is a business owner and former state representative.
• Maine's highly watched 2nd District flipped from voting for President Barack Obama by 9 percentage points in 2012 to voting for Donald Trump by 10 points in 2016.
• See the live coverage and full results from all US House elections.

The first-term Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is projected to win against the former state representative Dale Crafts in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, according to Insider and Decision Desk HQ.

The candidates

Golden is a former state legislator and US Marine veteran who defeated a Republican to flip the seat to Democratic control in the 2018 midterm elections. He was also the first member of the House elected with Maine's relatively new ranked-choice voting system for federal elections.

Golden is also part of a group of politically moderate military and national security veterans elected to Congress in the 2018 midterms from districts Donald Trump carried in 2016. That list includes Reps. Abigail Spanberger and Elaine Luria of Virginia, Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, and Rep. Max Rose of New York, among others.

Crafts served in the Maine House of Representatives from 2008 to 2016 and is also a business owner. After becoming paralyzed in a motorcycle accident in 1983, he created a company called Mobility Plus, which works on innovating ways for people with disabilities to drive more easily.

Crafts defeated State Sen. Eric Brakey and Adrienne Bennett, a realtor who previously served as press secretary to former GOP Gov. Paul LePage, in Maine's July 14 primaries.

A poll of the race between Golden and Crafts conducted by The New York Times and Siena College from September 11 to September 16 showed Golden leading Crafts by 19 points — 56% to 37% — in the district.

See live coverage and full results for the US presidential election

The district

Maine's 2nd District, which consists of most of the state's geographical landmass, is heavily rural and working-class. It flipped from voting for President Barack Obama by 9 percentage points in 2012 to voting for Trump by 10 points in 2016.

It also plays an important role in the Electoral College and will receive a significant amount of attention in the presidential race.

Maine, along with Nebraska, allocates its Electoral College votes proportionally, with two allocated based on the statewide results and each congressional district accounting for one electoral vote.

The money race

Golden, a talented fundraiser, has built up an impressive war chest and far outpaces Crafts, who only recently secured the nomination in mid-July.

Golden has raised over $4.6 million, spent $4.2 million, and has nearly half a million in cash on hand, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. By contrast, Crafts has raised $1 million, spent a little over $842,000, and has about $165,000 in cash on hand.

What some of the experts said

The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia rate the race between Golden and Crafts as "likely Democratic."

In the Electoral College, Maine's 2nd District is rated as a toss-up by Inside Elections, The Cook Political Report, and Sabato's Crystal Ball.