Israel could eventually divide the left — while Ukraine divides the right

• If the conflict in Israel drags on for weeks, Democrats in Congress may eventually split over it.
• It would showcase a divide that echoes — but doesn't exactly mirror — GOP discord over Ukraine.

Hamas's surprise attack on Israel over the weekend may bring weeks of ongoing violence — and the resulting response from Congress could showcase the Democratic Party's growing divisions over Israel.

It's a divide that might echo — though not exactly mirror — Republicans' divisions over Ukraine.

When the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, lawmakers were relatively united in levying harsh sanctions against Russia and approving billions in aid to Ukraine. But over time, support for providing further aid to Ukraine has plummeted among rank-and-file GOP lawmakers as constituents and right-wing advocacy groups make their opposition clear.

Similarly, members of Congress have been unified in condemning Hamas's violent incursion into Israel, and many have expressed a willingness to provide aid to the Jewish state. But if the conflict grows protracted and results in weeks to months of Israeli military activity in Gaza, the tide of support could begin to turn, particularly among progressive lawmakers.

Here's how it could all play out.

These two conflicts are not the same

First, it's worth taking stock of the differences between the two conflicts, including their basic dynamics and how each interacts with existing political sentiments in the US.

While the war in Ukraine can largely be understood as a hostile foreign power seeking to subjugate and occupy a smaller country, the situation in Israel is more complex. Hamas is a terrorist organization and political party that governs the Gaza Strip, a small Palestinian territory that's home to roughly 2 million people.

Gaza has been the subject a sweeping blockade from both Israel and Egypt since shortly after Hamas seized power there in 2007. Residents encounter extreme difficulty leaving the densely-populated territory and economic activity is severely constrained as a result, leading some human rights groups to dub Gaza an "open-air prison."

Israeli has also long been the top recipient of substantial foreign aid from the United States, totaling $158 billion to date and $3.8 billion annually since 2019. The United States and the Jewish state have long had close relations, and evangelical Christian voters — who make a substantial portion of the GOP base — are among the most staunchly pro-Israel Americans.

Ukraine, by contrast, does not have a deep history of ties to the US. Lawmakers have long framed support for Ukraine not in terms of an unshakeable bond between two nations, but as an important way to support democratic values and a worthy investment in combatting Russia.

How Republicans turned on Ukraine

Initially, Republicans were largely united behind combatting Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In the weeks after the invasion, only a handful of hard-right lawmakers voted against several measures passed in the House as a result, including suspending trade relations with Russia, easing the transfer of weapons to Ukraine, and passing resolutions in support of Ukraine and other countries threatened by Russian aggression.

Then, 57 House Republicans voted against a larger bill providing $40 billion in aide to Ukraine in May.

That opposition has only swelled over time, and as of September, more than half of House Republicans have voted against at least one of several bills aimed at providing aid to Ukraine.

Opposition to aiding Ukraine has been driven by figures on the right such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who have argued that the US is prioritizing the defense of a foreign country at the expense of other domestic issues.

That arguments has in turn driven opposition to Ukraine aid among GOP voters; 71% of Republicans said that the US should not authorize any new funding for Ukraine in an August poll from CNN.

While there's some opposition to supporting Ukraine on the far left, Democrats have been unanimous in approving aid for the country over the last 18 months.

How progressives could turn on Israel

For now, Democrats are essentially united on Israel, because it's not a hard call — the country was the subject of a brutal terrorist attack, the largest single-day murder of Jews since the Holocaust.

The only variance so far lies in what some progressive Democrats say should happen next, with some calling for a ceasefire while recognizing the brutality of the ongoing Israeli occupation of Palestine and blockade of Gaza.

It remains unclear what kind of aid Congress may be called upon to provide to Israel, but the Washington Post reported that the White House could make a request as soon as next week.

By that point, the situation on the ground on Israel could look far different than it does now.

In the wake of the Hamas attack, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a "complete siege" of the territory, including "no electricity, no food, no fuel for Gaza." Israel has also begun launching airstrikes in Gaza — reducing buildings to rubble — and is prepared for a mass military mobilization.

Thousands of Palestinians are likely to die in the resulting conflict, dwarfing the hundreds of Israelis killed by Hamas over the weekend. Tens of thousands of Palestinians could also be injured, displaced, or lose their livelihoods. Those images are likely to play a significant role in how the progressive left responds.

"The only images we're going to see for the next couple of weeks are dead Palestinians," an unnamed Democratic lawmaker told POLITICO. "So that's when the Progressive Caucus will get all ginned up."

And Democrats as a whole are now significantly more sympathetic towards Palestinians than Israelis, according to polling from Gallup earlier this year.

As the conflict drags on, Democratic lawmakers are likely to face pressure from both constituents and progressive activist groups to encourage a ceasefire, and deeper questions about Israel's treatment of the Palestinians are likely to arise.

Furthermore, the current government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the most right-wing in history, and includes ministers who've called for expressed support for expelling Arabs from Israel and curtailing the rights of LGBTQ+ people.

For now, criticism of Israel may be limited to a select group of uber-progressive lawmakers, many of whom voted against a resolution in July stating that Israel is "not a racist or apartheid state."

But the progressive caucus is far larger than just the 8-member "Squad," and encompasses roughly 100 lawmakers from a variety of districts and backgrounds.

While none of those lawmakers are likely to take some sort of "anti-Israel" stance, there may be growing calls to halt further Israeli aid as the extent of the suffering of Palestinians becomes clearer.