Is Keir Starmer's time as Labour leader about to come to an early end?

• Keir Starmer's future as Labour Party leader may be in peril.
• Historically poor recent election results for the party have left him vulnerable.
• Starmer has the support of most Labour MPs but defeat in the Batley and Spen by-election could spark a challenge.

The Labour party's historically poor showing in the Chesham and Amersham by-election last week was followed by reports that senior members of his Shadow Cabinet are secretly plotting to oust him.

"Backers of Ms [Angela] Rayner and fellow frontbencher Lisa Nandy have already started ringing round Labour MPs to ask for their backing if Sir Keir goes," The Sun reported.

The result also coincided with the departure of key senior aides, adding up to a mounting sense that his leadership may be in peril.

However, Labour MPs Insider spoke to over the weekend were quick to dismiss suggestions of an immediate challenge to Starmer and variously described reports that one would come soon as "hot air," and "insane".

One MP, on the left of the party, who has been very critical of Starmer, said simply that an immediate challenge "isn't happening."

However, they added that things could quickly change if Labour loses in the upcoming Batley and Spen by-election.

"I think with Batley and Spen so close none of those interested in [challenging Starmer] wants to risk being left open to the attack they cost us the seat by coming out of the traps first," the MP told Insider.

"After Batley and Spen that won't apply."

Crunch time for Keir

A defeat in Batley and Spen would be incredibly dangerous for Starmer for several reasons.

The seat, at least on paper, is much easier for Labour to hold onto than Hartlepool, which Labour also lost last month.

Not only has the constituency historically been a very safe seat, but the party has also chosen a solid candidate.

Kim Leadbetter is a long-term local who is the sister of the seat's former MP Jo Cox, who was murdered by a far-right extremist back in 2016.

Starmer would find few excuses available to him if his party manages to lose.

The Lib Dem's impressive victory in Chesham and Amersham has destroyed the strongest defence for Starmer, that his party's weak recent electoral showings are down to a "vaccine bounce" for the Conservatives.

After all, if the Lib Dems are able to pull off a big electoral victory over the Conservatives during the vaccine rollout then why shouldn't the Labour party?

For these reasons, if Labour does somehow manage to lose the seat to the Conservatives, as one poll this week suggests they might, then Starmer's future could be in serious doubt.

Some of his more optimistic critics in the party believe Starmer may not even contest such a challenge.

"You get the impression that Keir doesn't want the job anymore," a Labour MP critical of Starmer told Insider.

"It's possible the [communications] team departures are a presage of that. Why carry on busting your balls when you know your boss has lost his mojo and is unlikely to be PM.

"I'm not even sure Keir would contest it."

However, others in the party believe that talk of a challenge right now is "insanity," just one year after he became leader.

One long-term supporter of Starmer pointed to one similarly poor by-election performance in the 1990s, after which the party went on to win a historic landslide against the Conservatives.

"People should grow up and focus on building a winning coalition," the MP told Insider.

Despite Starmer's recent troubles, many Labour MPs remain supportive of him and would be reluctant to allow a leadership challenge which could result in a political ally to previous Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn winning back the party.

However, few people have lost money over the years on betting that there will be more Labour infighting.

Whatever else happens, defeat in Batley and Spen would almost certainly be followed by a period of intense party discord at the very least, with a challenge against his leadership certainly possible.

As one Labour MP critical of Starmer put it: "Early July will be very interesting come what may."