- Despite pressure from Western allies, India has refused to isolate Russia over the Ukraine war.
- India's Narendra Modi this week spoke with both Ukraine's and Russia's leaders.
When Narendra Modi visited Ukraine over the weekend, he greeted its president Volodymyr Zelenskyy with an exuberant bear hug.
He did the same to Vladimir Putin only weeks ago when he traveled to Moscow to meet the Russian president, much to the anger of Zelenskyy.
"It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world's largest democracy hug the world's most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day," Zelenskyy wrote on X at the time.
Modi's visits to both Ukraine and Russia characterize his relentless ambiguity on the Ukraine war. He has not condemned nor supported the invasion and is now acting as a peacemaker.
The diplomatic highwire act highlights the dilemma Modi faces as he seeks to balance pressure from the US to show more support for Ukraine against maintaining good ties with Russia.
A quick end to the war
In the wake of the Ukraine trip, Modi called Putin. In a post on X, Modi said he reiterated "India's firm commitment to support an early, abiding and peaceful resolution of the conflict."
Dinakar Peri, a fellow at the Council for Strategic and Defense Research, told Business Insider that Modi's Ukraine visit was high on symbolism.
"Although the image of India being a peacemaker is largely rhetoric, the fact of the matter is that India is definitely uniquely positioned in comparison to many other countries due to the kind of bandwidth they have with Russia," said Peri.
Rahul Bhatia, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, told BI that while India is reluctant to come down on one side in the Ukraine war, it sees grave dangers in a prolonged conflict in Ukraine.
"India has sought to take a balanced approach to the war in Ukraine. New Delhi wants to maintain its relationship with Russia regardless of its diplomatic isolation," said Bhatia.
India's ties with the Kremlin are tested
Modi's insistence on not taking a side in Ukraine is likely to baffle and frustrate many Western observers, but analysts say there are vital economic and strategic goals behind India's position.
India has long had close diplomatic ties with Russia. During the Cold War, it relied on the Kremlin for military support while the US-backed regional rival Pakistan.
It now depends on Russia for oil supplies, surpassing China this week to become Russia's top oil importer.
"Most of the oil India imports from Russia is actually going to Europe," said Peri. "India is just a conduit — the oil is refined here, and the refined petroleum products are going to Europe as we speak."
"In that way, India has played the middle role of stabilizing the larger global economy, which would otherwise have gone for a toss."
Peri also pointed out India's dependence on Russia for military equipment, as well as upgrades and spare parts.
"Around 60% of Indian military equipment is of Russian origin," said Peri. "We have received a lot from other countries in the last few decades, like France, Israel, and increasingly so from the US, but we're still heavily Russian-oriented."
But the Ukraine war has shaken up India's relations with the Kremlin.
The US is pressuring India to help isolate Putin as punishment for the Ukraine invasion, and India is worried about the Kremlin's increasingly close relationship with China, which has backed Russia amid the Ukraine invasion.
"India-US ties are not just about Russia or the war in Ukraine," said Peri. "They're also about trade and strategic cooperation, which in some cases is also underpinned by concerns over China or the larger developments in the Indo-Pacific."
India sees Russia as a buffer against China's aggression
India has long been concerned about China's increasing aggressiveness in Asia, with a Himalayan border dispute erupting into clashes that left 24 people dead in 2020.
Indian and Chinese militaries have been engaged in a standoff on the disputed region of Ladakh since 2020. Although the countries have disengaged on several points, the standoff has continued.
Peri said that is India dependent on good ties with the Kremlin to help mitigate that threat: "The standoff created new dynamics for India, and those are all factors which will be in Indian calculations on the stand it takes."
Bhatia agreed that India has an eye on China when it engages with Russia. "While New Delhi accepts that Russia and China will gradually grow closer, it believes that maintaining a good relationship with Moscow will ensure that Russia remains neutral when India-China border tensions flare up," he said.
It also relies on close ties with the US to help counter China's aggression, reviving the "Quad" dialogue with the US, Australia, and Japan in 2017 to counter China's threat.
In the meantime, Modi will likely continue India's tightrope act, maintaining its alliance with the US while seeking not to alienate the Kremlin as it warily watches China's growing might.