- Democrats are pinning their hopes on abortion rights galvanizing enough voters to support them.
- In Pennsylvania, Democratic candidates have been campaigning on their plan to protect those rights.
HARRISBURG, Pennsylvania – As Election Day nears, the main concern gnawing at Hannah Blake is the possibility of losing access to abortion in her home state. That's because she's had an abortion before after she was raped.
She thinks about how life would have turned out for her had she been forced to carry that pregnancy to term.
"I already suffer from depression and anxiety. And I think if I had to go through with that, I don't think I'd still be here," the 25-year-old told Insider.
A registered independent, Blake plans to vote on Tuesday for all of the Democrats running to protect Pennsylvania's current law that allows abortion until 24 weeks of pregnancy.
"The thought of living in a state where that wasn't possible for me – to be where I am today and to then seek the help that I needed to get better," Blake said, "Anyone voting for red, in my eyes, is voting against that for me."
Democrats have been fighting to galvanize voters like Blake since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade on June 24. That battle couldn't be more obvious than in Pennsylvania.
Attorney General Josh Shapiro has vowed to keep abortion legal in his bid for governor as his Republican opponent Doug Mastriano has endorsed restricting it. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has pledged to enshrine abortion rights into federal law if he's elected to the US Senate, as his Republican challenger Mehmet Oz opposes abortion rights. In tight races, Democrats in the state like Rep. Susan Wild have argued that Republicans could pass a national abortion ban if they take back Congress.
Pennsylvania represents a test of whether Democrats' incessant messaging on abortion will drive turnout and keep them in power.
"What we're finding is that the women's right to choose and women's healthcare still resonate very strongly within the Democratic Party," said Lori McFarland, chairwoman of Lehigh County Democrats, who's been mobilizing voters.
But Republicans say that momentum around abortion is nonexistent: the economy and crime – what they call "kitchen-table" issues – are front and center and will ultimately propel the GOP to victory.
"Democrats want to make this about abortion because that's an issue that they feel they have some strength in," Glenn Geissinger, chairman of Northampton County's GOP, said. "But I would say less than one in 20 have even brought the subject up when we're speaking to them."
Abortion vs. economy
The immediate uproar over the Supreme Court's ruling offered a boost to Democrats, whose prospects at winning in November appeared dire given President Joe Biden's low public approval ratings.
Voter registration among Democrats surged as Republican-led states enacted abortion bans. Abortion entered the polls as a top concern. In August, when confronted with the first anti-abortion ballot measure in the nation, Kansas overwhelmingly rejected it. Democrats declared a shift in the political landscape – abortion rights were now on the ballot.
But that enthusiasm appears to have somewhat dwindled in the months since the decision came down. Recent polls suggest the economy and inflation dominate as the most important issues to Americans, far more than abortion, painting a potentially grim picture for Democrats again.
"They can't talk about any issues that are right in somebody's face on a daily basis, which is paying for gas, getting to work, and having enough money and enough on the shelves," Geissinger said of Democrats, as voters increasingly trust the GOP to handle the economy better.
Yet Democrats, hoping to stave off major losses in an election cycle that's historically unfavorable to them, remain committed to campaigning on abortion. From Labor Day through late October, candidates invested $103 million into TV and digital ads referencing abortion, a Washington Post analysis found, far outpacing spending on other issues.
In Pennsylvania's gubernatorial race, Shapiro has blown more than $7 million on abortion ads, hitting Mastriano on the airwaves over his support for a bill that would prohibit abortion after around six weeks of pregnancy.
And there are signs on the ground that the strategy might be working.
"We've seen that they are motivated to cast their ballots for candidates that will protect their right to bodily autonomy and access to healthcare as well," Breanna Ross, the regional campaign director of Planned Parenthood Votes, which has poured a record $50 million into informing voters about abortion rights in key states, including Pennsylvania.
"The heat has definitely been cranking up as we've gotten closer to the election," she added.
Larry Herring, a Philadelphia resident, has already voted for Shapiro. He said he's against state bans on abortion and worries that other rights could be threatened next.
"If they already have been able to withdraw the abortion rights, they can start dabbling in, which they've already been talking, about wanting to reverse gay marriage," Herring, who's been with his partner for 29 years, said.
'It's still a powerful part of this election season'
The end of Roe v. Wade has left around 1 in 3 women in America without access to abortion, but in Pennsylvania, the procedure is still legal. Outgoing Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf has defended abortion access against GOP state lawmakers' push to ban the procedure. But if Mastriano replaces him, that shield could dissolve.
Besides passing restrictions, abortion-rights advocates warn that if Republicans win at the state level, they could put forth a ballot measure that outlaws the procedure.
"They're kind of using unique avenues, if you will, to get around the governor to put forward policies that could potentially ban abortion," said Lindsey Maudlin, the vice president of advocacy and public policy at Planned Parenthood Southeastern.
Similarly, Democrats have hammered Republican candidates as "extreme" on abortion. That's what one Fetterman ad called Oz after he said in the October 25 debate that abortion laws should be decided by "women, doctors, local political leaders."
—John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) October 26, 2022
Oz has said he's against federal legislation that outlaws abortion, but he's refused to explicitly say whether he'd reject a 15-week ban proposed by Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.
Wild, of Pennsylvania's the state's 7th Congressional District, has claimed that her challenger, Republican Lisa Scheller, would back a nationwide ban on abortion if she were sent to Congress. Scheller has previously said she's open to supporting a bill that prohibits abortion after around six weeks of pregnancy. But she's since largely avoided the issue and emphasized her support for exceptions in cases of rape, incest, and to protect the mother's health.
Republicans and activists say that Democrats are exaggerating their opponent's positions and the stakes in Pennsylvania.
"They keep sending out the message that they'll ban all abortions. They'll have no restrictions whatsoever. And everybody knows that's a lie," Joe Vichot, chairman of the Lehigh County Republican Party, told Insider.
Michael Ciccocioppo, executive director of the Pennsylvania Pro-Life Federation, claimed the proposed amendment, known as Senate Bill 106, seeks to make the state constitution "neutral" on abortion.
"Personally, I would prefer an amendment to the Pennsylvania constitution that would say that life begins at the moment of conception," Ciccocioppo said. "But guess what? That amendment would never pass with 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania. I understand that."
Democrats are hoping their messaging on abortion can drown out that of Republicans. Whether they are triumphant remains to be seen.
"It may not be kind of the same emotional place for voters as it was right after Roe v. Wade," Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, told Insider. But he contends voters are thinking about the issue even in the days leading up to Election Day.
"It's still a powerful part of this election season," he said.