President Joe Biden has been clear that he plans to run for a second term in 2024.
His political team is even getting ready for a spring reelection announcement, according to the Washington Post.
But that hasn't stopped the "will he really?" chatter, particularly after a New York Times poll found that 61% of Democrats said they hoped someone other than Biden would be their nominee in 2024, largely because of his age and job performance.
Democratic insiders are questioning whether Biden, 79, can mount a vigorous campaign in 2024 — especially if former President Donald Trump decides to run again.
Despite the doubts, Biden is not expected to face a primary challenge given that it would would alienate other people in the party as well as the donor class, said Mark Jones, Rice University political science professor and Baker Institute fellow.
"The norm is that you do not challenge a sitting president from your party," Jones said. "That's a major political faux pas. It either isn't done, or if it is done it's done more for political ambition — not to actually win, but to put the spotlight on yourself for other reasons."
A key factor helping Biden's staying power is Trump. The New York Times poll found that Biden would be favored to win in another contest against Trump.
"The belief is Biden beat Trump before, he can beat him again," Jones said. If a Democrat were to try to primary Biden — and weaken him in the process — then that person would be blamed if a Republican, even Trump, were to win in 2024.
But none of these factors rule out politicians' making under-the-radar moves. If Biden somehow reverses his plans, that'll mean the party will need to find a backup.
Some ways that candidates begin to test the field through "invisible primaries" are by campaigning for other Democrats to build loyalty, particularly in swing districts. They also may appear at events in potential early voting states and offer noncommittal responses about whether they'll support Biden in 2024, said Shawn Donahue, a University at Buffalo assistant professor of political science.
Other ways are through grabbing headlines through weighing in on national debates, holding leadership roles in the party, and raising huge sums particularly from out-of-staters. In the case of governors interested in the White House, they'll need to crush the opposition if they're up for reelection this year, in November.
"There will be a host of people who want to be waiting in the wings so the moment Biden says he's not running they can sort of jump in," Jones said.
Even if Biden doesn't change his mind, 2028 isn't much further off.
Here are 15 politicians who are taking actions or gaining interest that might position them for a 2024 White House run if Biden changes his mind: