- For months, Israel and Ukraine aid have stalled in the House. That's about to change.
- Speaker Johnson is planning separate votes on the aid in order to ease GOP opposition.
For months, the House has been sitting on a bill that would provide aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and humanitarian funding for Gaza.
That's about to change on Saturday.
House Speaker Mike Johnson — working with House Democrats — is holding separate votes on aid to Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan, along with a bill that would force TikTok's Chinese owners to sell the app within the year.
It's a modified version of a $95.3 billion aid package that passed the Senate by a strong bipartisan margin in February. In an effort to deal with increasingly complicated politics on both Ukraine and Israel aid, he's holding separate votes on each component, then bundling it up and sending it to the Senate.
All of this is happening as Johnson contends with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's threat to call a vote on his ouster if he allows more Ukraine aid to pass.
Here's what's in the four bills
The contents of the four bills largely mirror the contents of the Senate-passed bill, just broken into parts. Each will receive an individual vote.
Israel aid: $26.38 billion total, including $14.1 billion in military aid to Israel, $2.4 billion for US military operations in the Middle East, and $9.2 billion in humanitarian aid for Gaza. Funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) remains prohibited following a report that some employees participated in the October 7 Hamas attack, a move likely to anger progressives.
Ukraine aid: $60.84 billion total, $23.2 billion of which will go toward replenishing US weapons stockpiles. It also allows the aid to Ukraine to be structured as a loan.
Taiwan aid and Indo-Pacific military funding: $8.12 billion total, including $3.3 billion for US submarine infrastructure, $2 billion in military aid for Taiwan, and $1.9 billion to replenish US weapons already given to Taiwan and other countries.
TikTok bill and other provisions: A package that includes a recently passed bill to force the sale of the popular app TikTok, a bill to confiscate Russian assets, and more. In contrast to a version of the TikTok bill that passed the House last month, this one would extend the amount of time for the sale to roughly a year, easing some senators' concerns.
Many Republicans oppose Ukraine aid, while Democrats are increasingly skeptical of Israel aid
Johnson's plan is aimed at addressing two separate pockets of opposition to the foreign aid package.
After October 7, the Biden administration and Senate leaders insisted on tying Israel and Ukraine aid together, with the idea being that including Israel aid would incentivize Republicans to swallow more Ukraine aid.
Republicans, hoping to avoid that, have made numerous attempts at passing Israel aid on its own, but they've either failed or been stalled in the Democratic-controlled Senate.
Democrats unanimously support Ukraine aid, and there are plenty of Republicans — including Johnson, a former Ukraine skeptic — who feel the same, meaning a majority of the House would vote to approve it.
But as the war in Gaza has unfolded, and the Democratic base has increasingly turned against the war as civilian casualties mount, Democrats have grown to be either outright opposed to the Israel aid or supportive of conditions.
Johnson's plan is designed to allow progressive Democrats to vote against Israel aid, while hard-right Republicans can vote against the Ukraine aid — all while allowing the whole package to move forward.
Nancy Pelosi pulled off a version of this back in 2007
There's some precedent for what Johnson's trying to do here.
After retaking the House in 2007, Democrats faced pressure to continue funding the War in Iraq — but most House Democrats were opposed to that.
To solve the issue, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tied the funding to an increase to the federal minimum wage, while keeping the votes separate.
Thus, Democrats got a win — increasing the minimum wage by $2.10 — while Iraq war funding passed the House and made it to then-President George W. Bush's desk.
The hard-right is still furious, and Johnson could face a vote to oust him
Many hard-right Republicans remain opposed to this plan, and on Tuesday, Greene won a new ally: Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who is co-sponsoring the Georgia congresswoman's "motion to vacate" and is now calling on Johnson to resign.
I just told Mike Johnson in conference that I’m cosponsoring the Motion to Vacate that was introduced by @RepMTG.
— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) April 16, 2024
He should pre-announce his resignation (as Boehner did), so we can pick a new Speaker without ever being without a GOP Speaker.
Of course, both Greene and Massie are outliers among House Republicans — they were the only two lawmakers to vote against every single Russia-related bill following the start of the Ukraine war in 2022 — but Johnson has little room for error given Republicans' dwindling vote margin.
Several Democrats have said they would oppose an effort to oust Johnson, a break from their unanimous support for Kevin McCarthy's ouster in October.
But all of this depends on what happens on Saturday, and if the aid is actually passed.
"In the absence of an organized, logical demonstration of leadership, I'm not making any promises," said Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, who previously indicated a willingness to save Johnson in exchange for more Ukraine aid.
It's all likely to pass both chambers and be signed into law
While Democrats and some Republicans have generally expressed some skepticism about the plan, they're willing to do whatever it takes to get the foreign aid package approved.
Ultimately, there are majorities in the House and Senate for each component of this bill — it's just that the coalitions behind them are different.
The Senate is likely to take up votes on the combined package sometime next week, and President Joe Biden has said he will sign it into law.
That means Ukraine is going to get the help it needs to continue fighting, Israel will get the military aid that some progressives have called for Biden to halt, and TikTok will have roughly a year to be sold off — or it will be banned in the United States.