- Over the past 18 days, the 2024 race has been totally upended — in Trump's favor.
- It began with Biden's debate meltdown and the two weeks of Democratic infighting that followed.
There's no denying it: Donald Trump is experiencing an incredible stroke of luck.
The former president is headed into this week's Republican National Convention with the political wind at his back. Trump narrowly survived an assassination attempt Saturday, following two weeks of Democratic Party infighting about whether to stick with President Joe Biden after his disastrous debate performance.
On Monday, Trump got another victory: Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the federal government's classified-documents case against him.
Polling has shown that Trump's lead over Biden has continued to grow, and it's difficult to see how Democrats could turn that around. It may be the luckiest 18 days that any presidential candidate has ever had.
June 27: Biden's debate meltdown
We all know it by now: The first debate was an unmitigated disaster for Biden, who appeared frail, frequently stumbled over his words, and occasionally uttered nonsensical phrases.
Biden's performance cemented long-standing concerns among voters, including a majority of Democrats, that the president is too old to seek another term. At 78, Trump is only a few years younger than Biden, but he was able to deliver an energetic-enough debate performance that ensured the focus remained on Biden.
The debate about the debate that consumed the following weeks may have hurt the president more, as Democrats engaged in a very public disagreement over whether Biden still represents their best shot at beating Trump.
Twenty House Democrats and one Democratic senator have publicly called for Biden to withdraw from the race, while several others have observed that barring a course correction, Trump is likely to win the election in November.
Those discussions were muted after the attempt on Trump's life, but they're unlikely to completely stop, especially if subsequent events lead to a continued polling boost for the former president.
July 13: Surviving an assassination attempt
Trump narrowly avoided a shooting attempt during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday.
Trump is simply lucky he didn't die: One of the gunman's bullets grazed his ear. If he'd been standing even an inch to the right, he could have been killed.
"I'm not supposed to be here, I'm supposed to be dead," Trump told The New York Post. "By luck or by God, many people are saying it's by God I'm still here."
But there's no denying the political advantage that the attempted assassination gives Trump.
While he and his allies have long stoked political violence — most notably during the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol — the narrow miss allows Trump to flip that script and credibly portray himself as the victim of political violence, even if the motive of the shooter remains unclear.
On Sunday, Trump told the Washington Examiner and The New York Post that his speech at the Republican National Convention Thursday would focus on unity rather than serve as an attack on Biden.
The images of Trump raising his fist at the rally immediately after he was shot will likely be a powerful motivator for his supporters, helping to drive up enthusiasm ahead of the election.
July 15: A judge dismisses Trump's classified documents case
Trump received another dose of good news Monday.
Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the federal government's classified-documents case against Trump, ruling that the appointment of Jack Smith as special counsel was unconstitutional.
The case, widely seen as the strongest criminal proceeding against the former president, isn't dead yet. Smith's office is likely to appeal the judge's decision, and the case could ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court.
At the very least, Cannon's move delays the case and provides an important morale boost for the president and his supporters going into the convention.
It also underscores the enduring impact that Trump's first term had on the American judicial system: Cannon was nominated by Trump in 2020 and confirmed by the Senate, then controlled by Republicans, later that year.