RESULTS: Republican Michelle Steel defeats first-term Rep. Harley Rouda in California's 48th Congressional District

• Republican Michelle Steel is projected to have defeated first-term Democratic Rep. Harley Rouda in the state's 48th Congressional District, Insider and Decision Desk HQ can report.
• See the live coverage and full results from all US House elections.
• The district is located in Orange County, the third-most populous county in California, and has been trending Democratic in recent election cycles.
• Rouda defeated 15-term Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher in 2018.

Republican Michelle Steel is projected to have defeated first-term Rep. Harley Rouda to represent California's 48th Congressional District in an upset win, Insider and Decision Desk HQ can report.

The candidates

Rouda is a lawyer and formerly the general counsel for HER Realtors, his late father's company.

During his 2018 campaign, Rouda received $4 million from businessman and former presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg, according to the Orange County Register. Rouda went on to endorse Bloomberg's presidential campaign in February 2020. In 2018, Rouda ran against 15-term incumbent Dana Rohrabacher, beating him by 5.4 percent.

In Congress, he serves as Chairman of the Subcommittee on Environment on the House Oversight Committee and has a seat on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. His reelection campaign emphasized lowering prescription drug prices, relief for small businesses in the district from COVID-19-induced losses, and tax reform.

Steel, Rouda's challenger, is a South Korean immigrant and the Chairwoman of the Orange County Board of Supervisors.

She was previously on the board of the California State Board of Equalization. During the tenure of President George W. Bush, Steel was selected as a member of the President's Advisory Commission on Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders. Her campaign platform revolved around lowering taxes in California, securing borders, and combatting the state's rising homelessness issues.

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The district

California's 48th Congressional District is located south of Los Angeles in Orange County. The district includes the cities of Huntington Beach, Laguna Beach, Fountain Valley, Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Seal Beach, and Laguna Niguel and portions of Westminster, Santa Ana, Aliso Viejo, Garden Grove, and Midway City. The district is the third most populous county in California.

The 48th District is in a group of Orange County districts that have rapidly trending Democratic in recent election cycles. Orange County, once the homeland of staunch Reagan Republicans, has seen its voters turn away from the GOP under President Donald Trump.

The 48th District went from voting for 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney by nearly 12 points in 2012, according to the Daily Kos, to backing 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 1.7 points.

The money race

According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Rouda has raised $5.4 million, spent $4.2 million, and has $1.4 million in cash on hand while Steel has raised $5.1 million, spent $3.1 million, and has $1.9 million in cash on hand as of September 30.

What the experts said

The race between Rouda and Steel was rated as "leans Democratic" by Inside Elections, The Cook Political Report, and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.