- Chris Christie, Mike Pence, and Doug Burgum are expected to declare candidacy this week.
- The primary is likely a contest between Trump supporters and those who want an alternative.
The Republican 2024 presidential field is set to swell this week with the entries of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. This will bring the total official GOP nominees up to an even dozen — and it will do even more to put frontrunner Donald Trump on a glide path to the nomination.
All three new entrants are long-shot candidates by any measure.
Christie is deeply unpopular in the current version of the GOP — he has the highest unfavorables of any potential candidate, per a recent CNN poll.
Pence, despite being a more natural fit for a GOP tacking hard right on social issues, is also struggling. Even his natural base, evangelicals, are split towards Trump.
Doug Burgum, meanwhile, is a relatively unknown former software CEO and billionaire with zero national profile and a charisma that could diplomatically be called "off-brand Mitt Romney."
2016 all over again
The primary is quickly starting to resemble 2016, when a crowded GOP race allowed Trump to prevail with a loyal base, and the anti-Trump vote remained splintered, and no credible rival could emerge to stop his momentum.
Strategists argue history is poised to repeat itself.
"2024 is now looking like 2016 all over again when 17 candidates sought the nomination," Donna Brazile said on ABC's "This Week." The Republican nomination process "comes down to thinking about voters on a shopping spree." And GOP primary voters know Trump's "brand."
Trump's lead in polling has steadily increased for months, even after his historic arraignment in Manhattan on criminal charges, while his only credible contender, Ron DeSantis, has sagged in polling even after making an official announcement. RealClearPolitics shows Trump's average support across multiple polls at around 53 percent, with DeSantis in at about 22 percent. No other candidate currently polls above 5 percent.
The GOP primary base appears to split into two even camps: Trump supporters and those looking for an alternative. Trump supporters, so far, don't seem inclined to switch their support.
Right now, DeSantis appears to be the preferred alternative, but GOP primary voters looking for a non-Trump candidate will have a glut of contenders to choose from, slicing each potential candidate's support thinner and thinner.
Primary contenders not named Donald Trump will likely be fighting over the same group of moderate GOP supporters. As Michael Tesler of FiveThirtyEight points out, Trump now commands a majority of "very conservative" primary voters, despite losing those voters in 2016. "Trump has not only reshaped the Republican Party in his own image; he has also redefined what it means to be a conservative," writes Tesler.
Barring a major change in the race, every new entrant hurts Ron DeSantis and helps Donald Trump. Considering even more potential candidates haven't yet declared, the pain for DeSantis doesn't look like it will end soon.