Boris Johnson mulls snap election in 2022 after being warned economy 'won't get any better' before his term runs out

• Boris Johnson is mulling a snap election as early as this summer, amid fears the economy will crash.
• Strategist Lynton Crosby told the PM things "won't get any better," a Conservative MP told Insider.
• Another MP said they expect Johnson to announce a vote at or before the Tory conference in October.

Boris Johnson could call a general election this year amid concerns that the UK's cost-of-living crisis could worsen, a number of Conservative MPs have told Insider.

The prime minister, who is also fending off criticism from his own MPs over partygate, has been warned by his political strategist Lynton Crosby that the British economy "won't get any better" before the current term runs out in 2024, one backbench MP told Insider.

All sources were granted anonymity so they could speak frankly.

The MPs Insider spoke to said they expect a general election to be called as early as this summer or autumn, with the prime minister free to call a vote before his term ends, thanks to the repeal of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in March.

Previously Johnson had been reportedly eyeing a general election in 2023, but Tory MPs fear this will be the worst possible timing, as rising inflation is set to further exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis.

The Bank of England issued a surprise warning Thursday that the UK's economy is on course to shrink in 2023, while surging energy prices will drive inflation above 10%.

The bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which increased interest rates to 1%, said the UK will avoid a technical recession, but GDP is expected to shrink by 0.25%.

The Conservatives have taken a sustained second-place position in the polls, as the partygate scandal takes its toll.

Tories told Insider they fear losing seats in both Wakefield and Tiverton & Homerton in forthcoming by-elections likely to be dominated by negative headlines. That could put further pressure on the prime minister, who has faced repeated calls from his own MPs to quit.

Although several MPs Insider spoke to expressed skepticism about the prospect of a snap vote this year — one branded it "ridiculous" — others said Johnson would sacrifice colleagues to be elected again with a smaller majority.

They believe he would gamble several other seats — including those of Cabinet colleagues and potentially even his own in Uxbridge and South Ruislip — to end the criticism from colleagues and secure another five-year mandate from the public.

One backbencher told Insider they expected an announcement at or before the annual party conference in early October, regardless of polling.

"The party doesn't matter. It's just a vehicle for him. The party can rot as far as he's concerned. If the worst case scenario is he's not going to be PM anyway, he's got nothing to lose," the MP said.

The MP, a former minister, added: "But Labour are nowhere … if it comes to a straight choice, voters will go for Boris. We might lose Scotland and another few seats like [solicitor general Alex Chalk's] Cheltenham, [deputy prime minister Dominic] Raab will go, all of Scotland and London. But then he's got another five years."

Another senior Conservative agreed. "It is more about saving him than the party," he said.

An election would be called before the threshold of 54 letters of no confidence was reached, triggering a vote in Johnson's leadership, which could be "sooner rather than later if it does not stop — more like July or autumn," the senior Tory added.

"We will have a general election to 'let the people decide' and he will manage to make it [Labour leader Keir] Starmer's fault somehow… I hope Labour are fully funded and ready to go for Starmer's sake, because this is going to be like nothing they have ever seen."

One Number 10 source said an election was "unlikely," but did not rule it out. A Downing Street spokesperson denied there were plans to call a snap election.