Politics- Joe Biden's 2020 victories in Arizona and Georgia were major triumphs for the Democratic Party.
- Biden ran up his margins in large metro areas and among the party's Black and Latino base voters.
In the 2020 election, Joe Biden's victories in Arizona and Georgia were two of the most significant presidential triumphs for Democrats in recent decades, as the party finally broke through with voters in a major way in what had long been Republican strongholds.
But the wins were narrow.
Biden won Georgia by roughly 12,000 votes out of nearly 5 million ballots cast, and the now-president carried Arizona by about 10,000 votes out of nearly 3.4 million ballots cast.
As Biden continues to lag in national polls, his numbers in Arizona and Georgia remain underwater, a huge problem that threatens the very electoral calculus that put him in the White House in 2020.
From softening support among Black and Latino voters to voter disillusionment over the economy and the Israel-Hamas war, along with with a decline in support from independents, here are some of the biggest challenges that Biden faces as he looks to win both Arizona and Georgia again next year:
Many Black voters don't feel seen
Other than South Carolina, whose 2020 Democratic primary propelled Biden to his party's nomination, there's perhaps no other state that defined his come-from-behind success more than Georgia.
Biden's win in the state was buttressed by robust Black turnout in Atlanta and its populous metropolitan area, as well as support from Black votes in rural Georgia.
Overall, Black voters made up 29% of the Georgia electorate in the 2020 election, and they went for Biden by 77 points (88%-11%) over Trump, according to Edison Research exit polling. White voters, who made up roughly 61% of the electorate that year, went for Trump by 39 points (69%-30%), which allowed Biden to eke out a win.
So any small electoral movement in Georgia, especially among Black voters, could seriously derail Biden's chances in the state. And as The New York Times' Mara Gay recently reported, some young Black voters in Georgia have become disenchanted with the administration, citing higher food and housing costs in an economy that's still in many ways recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Many young voters are also opposed to the billions of dollars in foreign aid being sent to Israel, citing the country's bombardment of Gaza and their desire to see more investments in the United States.
In the latest New York Times/Siena College survey of Georgia, Trump led Biden in the state by 6 points (49%-43%) among registered voters. And the former president earned 19% support among Black voters, with 76% of Black voters backing Biden.
Biden can't win Georgia again if he's getting under 80% of the Black vote while also sliding among other groups in the state. Republican presidential candidates often struggle to win more than 15% of the Black vote, so if Trump eats into what has been Biden's most consistent base of support, it'll severely curtail the president's chances of winning the Peach State again.
Black voter mobilization will be key for Biden next year if he wants to win the state's 16 electoral votes in 2024.
Will Arizona's Latino voters come out for Biden?
Biden's 2020 win in Arizona represented another major milestone for Democrats in the West, as the party's recent gains have been powered by the growing Latino vote in the region. It's a reason why Colorado and New Mexico have become so Democratic on the presidential level, while Nevada has more often than not trended Democratic in statewide races in recent years.
What Biden did in 2020 was something that Democrats had long aspired to do in Arizona: win populous Maricopa County, turn out Latino voters, and peel off enough suburban independents to capture the state.
It was a delicate balance, but Biden pulled it off.
However, 2024 could be a different story, as immigration remains one of the most polarizing issues in the national political dialogue. And similar to Georgia, high housing costs are a major problem for many Arizonans, a hindrance to the Biden campaign even as the president campaigns on low unemployment and job growth.
In the New York Times/Siena poll of Arizona, Trump led Biden in the state by 5 points (49%-44%), with Biden ahead with Latino voters by 14 points (55%-41%). It's a positive sign for the president, but he won Latino voters by roughly 24 points in 2020.
Underperformance or low turnout among Latino voters, who are a key part of Biden's coalition here, would hurt him immensely.
Independents will be key
Biden doesn't have to win Arizona and Georgia to win reelection, but he needs to remain competitive in both states in case he loses any other key swing states like Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.
The biggest problem for Biden is that if he falters in states like Arizona and Georgia, his path to 270 electoral votes — and the presidency — will rest on running the table in the most competitive states.
For an incumbent president who's currently averaging a 39% job approval rating, that's an incredibly difficult place to be.
One of Biden's continued weaknesses is his lag in support among independents.
These voters were a large part of why Democrats took back the House of Representatives in 2018 and won back the White House in 2020, but they've soured on Biden over the past year.
In November 2023, Gallup showed Biden with a 27% approval rating among independents. And while Biden's numbers improved to 34% in Gallup's December survey, he's still lagging with this key bloc.
In the 2020 election, Biden defeated Trump among independents by 9 points, or 52%-43%, according to Pew Research Center.
If Biden is to succeed with this group next fall, it'll largely depend on an improved economy and the perception that the economy has improved, a combination that has so far eluded the president as he travels the country to sell his administration's record.