An independent candidacy by Kyrsten Sinema could help Democrats win the 2024 Arizona Senate race as she appears to pull more support from Republicans than from her old party, a new poll says

• For months, Democrats have worried about a three-way Senate race in Arizona giving the GOP a boost.
• But a new Emerson College poll shows Democrats ahead in three-way matchups that include Sinema.

When Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party to become an Independent last December, many members of her former party fretted about the implications for her potential 2024 reelection bid.

While Sinema has not shifted her voting pattern and is not looking to caucus with Republicans, a possible three-way race looms if she decides to run for a second term in the upper chamber.

But based on a recently-released Emerson College poll, Sinema's entry into the race may actually give an advantage to Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Phoenix-area lawmaker who's widely seen as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.

In a one-on-one matchup between Gallego and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, a Republican, both candidates were tied at 42% support in the poll, while 16% of respondents indicated that they were undecided. But in a three-way race with Gallego, Lamb, and Sinema, the Democratic candidate leads with 36% support, followed by Lamb at 29% and Sinema with 21% support — while 15% of respondents were undecided.

Similarly, in a one-on-one matchup between Gallego and Republican candidate Brian Wright, the Democrat posted a 41%-38% edge. And in a three-way contest with Gallego, Wright, and Sinema, the congressman leads with 37% support, with Sinema at 26% and Wright with 25% support.

One of the more fascinating elements of the polling is Sinema's continued popularity with a sizable bloc of Republicans, a dynamic similar to her 2018 Senate victory when she ran as a Democrat. That year, she peeled off enough Republicans and independents to defeat then-GOP Rep. Martha McSally.

In the Emerson College poll, 21% of Republicans opt for Sinema with Lamb on the ballot, while 34% of GOP respondents backed Sinema with Wright as their party's nominee.

Meanwhile, Sinema only peeled off 8% of Democratic respondents against Gallego, according to Emerson.

Should Sinema run for reelection, it is unclear how her Democratic Senate colleagues will navigate her candidacy given their preexisting relationships with her and the fact that the party will have an official nominee.

But the Republican race remains more fluid, as 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake may enter the race later this year, while 2022 Senate nominee Blake Masters and 2022 state attorney general nominee Abe Hamadeh could also jump into the contest. Jim Lamon, a former solar energy executive who ran for the party's Senate nomination last year, might also be in the mix.

The Arizona Senate race could end up with a Sinema victory, which would reaffirm the state as a purple battleground; a Gallego victory, which would solidify Arizona as an emerging foothold for Democrats in the West; or a Republican victory, which would serve as a reminder of continued conservative strength in the state.

And all eyes will also be on the presidential race in Arizona.

In 2020, now-President Joe Biden narrowly defeated then-President Donald Trump in the state, edging out the incumbent by almost 11,000 votes out of nearly 3.4 million ballots cast.

The latest Emerson College survey predicts another close presidential race in Arizona.

In the poll, Trump led Biden 45%-43% among registered voters. With third-party candidate Cornel West in the mix, Trump led Biden 42%-41%, while 4% chose West.