An early Trump 2024 announcement would be perilous for Capitol Hill Republicans who are already measuring the drapes for their majority, sources say

• GOP strategists would prefer that Trump waits until after the midterms to announce a 2024 bid.
• Trump keeps teasing he'll announce his run far earlier than most candidates typically do.

Former President Donald Trump is still weighing announcing a White House bid before the November midterms, much to the chagrin of many GOP strategists.

The subject of when and whether Trump will take a third go at the White House has been one of the most talked-about topics in politics in recent weeks, particularly as the House January 6 hearings heat up.

But Republicans worry that their chances to retake Congress could be hurt if Democrats are successfully able to make the all-important 2022 midterms about Trump instead of about issues polls show are at the top of voters' priorities, from high gas prices to inflation.

As Republicans work to gain a majority in both the House and Senate, they've focused much of their campaign messaging on attacking President Joe Biden and Democrats over the prices that have climbed under their watch. Should Trump run, then he would become a leading topic in the midterms.

One top GOP strategist told Insider that a pre-midterm announcement from Trump would be a "train wreck for the party" and "a complete mess."

"It will take the emphasis off Biden and the administration and put it on Trump — which is right where he likes it — and would be terrible for candidates" who will then be asked about Trump's campaign as well as their thoughts on the January 6 hearings, the person said.

Typically presidential candidates wait until after the midterms to make announcements. Trump could delay until the middle or even end of 2023 to reveal his intentions and still have plenty of time to qualify for primary ballots and otherwise run a nationwide campaign.

One Republican who spoke to Trump about an early announcement told Insider it was "unwise to decide on any issue that might drive the 2024 Republican primary when the 2022 elections may be impacted in uncertain ways."

"Win first, answer questions later," the person, who opposes the idea of a pre-midterm Trump move, said.

Sam Nunberg, who advised Trump's successful 2016 White House bid, summed it up this way: "This midterm is about Brandon, not Donald," invoking an anti-biden nickname prominent among Trump's base.

Trump faces drawbacks from early announcement

The downsides of announcing early could also affect Trump, particularly because he would lose fundraising advantages he currently enjoys.

Since exiting the White House, Trump has maintained a robust political operation, conducting rallies, and raising tens of millions of dollars through a collection of political committees that serve as a sort of unofficial campaign effort.

After an announcement, he would have to set up an official campaign account that would accept no more than $2,900 for donations from individuals, said Sheila Krumholtz, executive director of OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan research organization focused on money in politics.

Currently, Trump can raise unlimited sums through super PACs and coordinate on messaging and events. He also doesn't have to report all the spending details from his political operation, which would include everything from payroll and travel to polling firms.

The Republican who spoke to Trump about an early announcement told Insider there were "far too many potential downsides to a pre-midterms announcement," citing the spending constraints, and "precious little upside."

Some reports view Trump announcing early as a sign that he's trying to block out GOP competition, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has risen in popularity, as well as a growing number of other rivals.

But the Trump confidante predicted that other Republicans considering a presidential run in 2024 would be awaiting his decision anyway, and said the GOP base was "unmoved by the House Committee teledrama and the exaggerated idea that President Trump is imperiled."

Trump's legacy will also suffer if he makes an early announcement, Nunberg said.

"If anyone who has Donald Trump trust is counseling him to announce his third candidacy for president before the 2022 midterms in good faith, then they are dumber than they look and probably just need a paycheck," he said. "Announcing your presidential campaign before the midterm election is a catastrophic mistake for any candidate and particularly in this circumstance will destroy the Trump political legacy."