What will happen if Mamata Banerjee actually resigns as the Chief Minister of West Bengal?

Mamata Banerjee, the Chief Minister of West Bengal and leader of the Trinamool Congress (TMC), has been a dominant force in the state's politics for over a decade. Recently, she offered to resign amidst the ongoing R.G. Kar Hospital protests, where junior doctors have been on strike demanding justice for a murdered colleague. While Banerjee’s offer to step down seems more symbolic, aimed at quelling tensions, it raises important questions about what would happen if she were to actually resign as Chief Minister.

Here’s a detailed breakdown of the process and its implications for West Bengal:

1. Resignation

If Mamata Banerjee were to formally submit her resignation, the process would begin with her presenting a written resignation letter to the Governor of West Bengal. This is the standard protocol for any Chief Minister in India. The resignation is at the discretion of the Governor, who typically accepts it unless there is a compelling reason not to.
Once the resignation is accepted, Banerjee would cease to be the CM immediately. However, the Governor might request her to continue as a caretaker CM until a new government is formed. In this role, Banerjee would oversee a temporary government with limited powers, unable to make significant policy decisions or pass new laws.

2. Election of a new leader

Mamata Banerjee’s resignation would leave a significant leadership vacuum within the Trinamool Congress, which currently has a strong majority in the West Bengal Legislative Assembly. Given her deep-rooted influence over the party, it’s likely that the TMC would convene an emergency meeting to elect a new leader.

Banerjee’s close associates, such as her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, could be contenders for the CM post. Alternatively, the party could look for a senior and experienced leader to stabilise the situation until the next elections. However, given Banerjee’s control over the party, she may still wield significant influence from behind the scenes, even if she officially steps down.

3. Role of the Governor

In the absence of a clear successor, the Governor plays a key role. The Governor might invite the TMC to form the government again by electing a new leader, but if the party fails to show a majority or experiences factionalism, the Governor could explore other options. This could include inviting the opposition to form the government if they demonstrate the numbers, or even recommending President’s Rule in the state under Article 356 of the Indian Constitution, where the central government takes over the state's administration.

4. Vote of confidence

Once a new leader is chosen by the TMC, they will be sworn in as the next Chief Minister. However, they would need to prove their majority on the floor of the West Bengal Legislative Assembly. This process, known as a vote of confidence, is crucial in determining whether the new CM has the support of the majority of the legislators. If the party remains united, this step should be straightforward.

However, in the event of internal splits within the TMC or if Banerjee’s resignation triggers political instability, the new leader may struggle to secure the necessary support, potentially leading to fresh elections.

5. Impact on West Bengal’s political landscape

Mamata Banerjee’s resignation would have a profound impact on the political landscape of West Bengal. She has been the face of the TMC and has led the party to consecutive electoral victories, defeating formidable opponents like the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Her departure from the top post could trigger a realignment within the state’s political sphere.
If Banerjee were to leave active politics, it could embolden opposition parties like the BJP, which has been trying to expand its footprint in the state. Additionally, there could be a power struggle within the TMC itself, especially if no clear successor emerges.

6. President’s Rule as a last resort

In an extreme scenario, where the TMC fails to elect a new leader or where political instability leads to a breakdown of governance, the Governor could recommend President’s Rule. Under this provision, the state government is suspended, and the central government takes direct control of the state’s administration. President’s Rule is generally viewed as a last resort and can be imposed if no party can form a stable government.

However, given the TMC’s strong majority in the assembly, this is an unlikely scenario unless there is significant internal fragmentation within the party.

In short, if Mamata Banerjee resigns, West Bengal’s political future would hinge on how swiftly a new leader is appointed by her party and how successfully they can prove majority support in the assembly. Should this process falter, the state could face either interim governance under a caretaker government or even the possibility of President’s Rule, depending on the stability of the assembly.