LIVE UPDATES: See the full results of today's Arkansas Democratic primary
- Today is Super Tuesday, when 16 different Democratic party primaries and caucuses happen on the same day.
- Arkansas is holding their primary today, with polls closing at 6:30 p.m. Central time (7:30 p.m. Eastern).
- We'll have up-to-the-minute live vote counts and results happening in real time updating automatically.
- Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
Arkansas is hosting one of the 16 Democratic party presidential primaries and caucuses taking place on Super Tuesday. Polls in Arkansas close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern, and we will have live vote counts and results happening in real time.
Live Arkansas primary results:
Catch up on live coverage from the primary:
While you wait for results from "The Natural State" to come in, head over to our main Super Tuesday post to follow all the action.
Pre-primary:
- Everything you need to know about Super Tuesday on March 3, the biggest day in the Democratic primaries
- The more Democratic voters have gotten to know Mike Bloomberg, the less they like him
- Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg endorsing Joe Biden is absolutely devastating news for Elizabeth Warren
- 9 mind-blowing facts that show just how much richer Mike Bloomberg is than the other presidential candidates
- 'We made history': Pete Buttigieg drops out of the 2020 presidential race
- Joe Biden crushed the South Carolina primary
Here's how Democrats will elect their presidential nominee over the next several months
What's at stake in the primary?
While Arkansas is a small state that holds just 31, or 0.8%, of the delegates allocated through the primary process and isn't representative of the larger Democratic primary electorate, it is significant in its role as one of the first Super Tuesday states to close polls and report results.
Of the 31 pledged delegates:
- 4 will be decided by the outcome of the vote in the 1st Congressional District
- 6 from the vote in the 2nd District
- 5 from the vote in the 3rd District
- 5 from the vote in the 4th district
- 11 from the statewide vote
As usual, there's a 15% threshold, above which presidential candidates get delegates.
DELEGATE COUNT: Here's who's winning the race for the 2020 Democratic nomination
Former Vice President Biden will look to carry his success from South Carolina into Arkansas after underwhelming performances in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
Hillary Clinton won the Democratic Arkansas primary in both 2016 and 2008. Her ties to the state go back to her husband's tenure as attorney general and later governor of Arkansas in the late 1970s and early 1980s. None of the current Democratic primary candidates have an apparent tie to the state.
Who does the polling say is ahead?
By all accounts, we're in for a tight race in Arkansas. The state, which President Trump won with 60.57% of the vote in the 2016 general election, will likely skew towards the moderates in the Democratic primary race. Former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg looks to earn his first delegates of the primary on Super Tuesday, and Arkansas may very well be where they come from.
The most recent primary polls have shown Biden and Bloomberg as favorites to win the greatest voteshare and, therefore, the most delegates in the state. Sen. Bernie Sanders trails close behind in third place, respectively.
According to RealClearPolitics' average of the latest polling data, Bloomberg leads the field with 20.0% support on average compared with 19.0% for Biden, 16.0% for Sanders, 11.0% for Warren, 6.5% for Buttigieg, and 5.0% for Klobuchar, the latter two of whom have dropped out and endorsed Biden.
FiveThirtyEight's election forecast gives Biden a 45% chance of getting the most votes, followed by Sanders, who has a 28% chance of earning the most votes.