Democrats still think Joe Biden is electable, but they're cooling on him
- A recurring series of Insider polls shows that former Vice President Joe Biden's electability numbers are heading in the wrong direction, which could further complicate a core part of his campaign message that he is the best Democratic candidate to beat President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.
- Biden's electability figures have generally been on the decline since the polling began.
- Insider has been polling since December how different candidates are perceived - as satisfactory or unsatisfactory nominees - among self-identified primary voters.
- As of September 25, around 56% of Democratic primary voters would be satisfied if Biden emerged as the party's nominee and 65% said they believed he could beat Trump.
- Then 26% of primary voters expressed dissatisfaction and 37% said they believed Biden would lose in the general election.
- The figures indicating dissatisfaction and odds of losing in the general election were among the highest recorded in the recurring poll so far.
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A recurring series of Insider polls show that former Vice President Joe Biden's electability numbers are heading in the wrong direction, which could further complicate a core part of his campaign message that he is the best Democratic candidate to defeat President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.
Biden's electability figures among respondents have generally been on the decline since the polling began. Insider has been polling since December how different candidates are perceived - as satisfactory or unsatisfactory nominees - among self-identified primary voters.
Read more: How the INSIDER 2020 Democratic primary tracker works
As of September 25, around 56% of Democratic primary voters would be satisfied if Biden emerged as the party's nominee and 65% said they believed he could beat Trump. In contrast, 26% of primary voters expressed dissatisfaction and 37% said they believed Biden would lose in the general election.
The figures indicating dissatisfaction and odds of losing in the general election were among the highest recorded in the recurring poll so far, and suggests that primary voters are starting to cool on Biden. He's faced criticism for repeated gaffes and stumbled several times during the Democratic debates.
Back in December, Biden held a 69% favorability rating among self-identified primary voters, though no poll was taken on his odds to win the general election. That rating held steady with some fluctuations through late April when Biden formally announced his 2020 presidential bid after months of hesitation.
Read more: 3 big reasons Biden is no longer the definitive 2020 Democratic primary frontrunner
On April 26, a day after he launched his campaign, the former vice president had a 60% satisfaction rating among self-identified primary voters compared to 20% of those who expressed dissatisfaction. And he bet that his pitch on being the most electable candidate would resonate with primary voters - a strategy that has worked out among older voters and black voters. They form a key part of his base.
Yet in recent weeks, rival candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren's populist campaign has gathered steam. She overtook Biden in a key poll in Iowa in late September, underscoring the momentum she's gathered over the summer campaigning on a series of plans that would remake the American economy. That poll placed Warren at 22% and Biden at 20%. (That lead was within the margin of error.)
The dynamics are far from being set in stone. But Biden has centered his appeal on the campaign trail as being the candidate most able to defeat Trump in next year's general election and restore a sense of normalcy in Washington. If his electability numbers continue trending downward, Biden could be running into trouble.