Bernie Sanders is now the clear Democratic presidential frontrunner, but if the party's moderates can unite behind a single candidate he could be stopped in his tracks
- Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont on Monday night won the Democratic primary in New Hampshire, with 25.7% of the vote to runner-up Pete Buttigieg's 24.4%.
- The victory establishes Sanders as the Democratic front runner, with the veteran socialist having won the first two primaries.
- Financially he has only been outgunned by billionaires Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg.
- But a closer look at Monday's results show that things aren't over for Democratic progressives, and if they coalesce round one candidate, such as Buttigieg, their wing of the party could still win the nomination.
- Moderates secured more than 50% of Tuesday's vote, significantly more than Sanders.
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With his victory in Monday night's Democratic primary in New Hampshire, progressive maverick Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont became the frontrunner in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
The victory followed his narrow and disputed victory in the chaotic Iowa caucuses last week, with figures showing him outperforming every other candidate apart from billionaires Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg in the fundraising stakes.
Sanders hailed the results as "the beginning of the end" for President Donald Trump in a victory speech Tuesday.
For supporters it means their long-cherished dream of a progressive candidate pledging genuine radical reform moves closer to reality, and the beginning of the end for the centrists who they blame for skewing the 2016 contest in favor of Hillary Clinton, and hastening the rise of Trump.
They believe the momentum is behind them to clinch the nomination at July's Democratic convention in Milwaukee.
But there is a different way to look at Monday night's result. One that's likely to concern the Sanders campaign as it plots its route forward, and give hope to those who are convinced a candidate from the party's moderate wing like second-placed Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, or Joe Biden, is best placed to defeat Trump in November.
An analysis of the numbers from Monday night by Tom Nichols, an author and academic, showed that while the two candidates in the field considered most progressive, Sanders and Massachussetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, gained about 35% of the vote between them, the top three centrist candidates won 53% of the votes.
So even if Sanders had further consolidated his hold over the progressive wing of the party, it would still have been less than the votes won by moderates.
Unlike in 2016 when centrists quickly coalesced around Clinton as their candidate, lifting her to victory in the two first primaries, this time the moderate vote is split. This has been a vital part of Sanders' rise.
But in an unpredictable primary season, it is a situation that could change quickly.
Biden, who was once the clear frontrunner, and is seen by many as the party's best chance of beating Trump, has seen his campaign stagger to two crushing defeats in the initial primaries. The campaign is also struggling to raise money.
Further bad results could compel the former vice president and one-time favorite to step out soon.
Klobuchar's campaign is gathering momentum,but is it too late to mount a serious challenge? The senator from Minnesota could soon decide to leave the field open to another moderate and step out of the race.
Bloomberg is rising in the polls, and could soon eclipse Buttigieg as the leading Democratic moderate - with his fundraising clout possibly enough to persuade other centrist contenders their time is up.
Or Buttigieg could shruf off the other challengers and emerge as the clear frontrunner.
A December 2018 poll by Gallup gives real hope for those backing a moderate for the nomination.
It found that 54% of Democrats surveyed want their party to move towards the centre ground, compared to 41% who did not.
The findings were backed up by a November 2019 New York Times/Siena College poll, which found that 55% of Democratic voters in the battleground states likely to decide the election wanted a candidate who was more moderate than other Democrats.
So if the moderate vote unifies around one candidate, the path to victory is clear.
But if the split between moderates isn't healed and a front-runner does not emerge, Sanders' campaign will likely continue to build momentum.