Associated Press
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., accompanied by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., left, takes the stage at campaign stop at the Whittemore Center Arena at the University of New Hampshire, Monday, Feb. 10, 2020, in Durham, N.H. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
- After running the table in New Hampshire in 2016, Sen. Bernie Sanders will look to hold onto as many supporters as possible amid a split vote.
- Independents and other non-Democrats can vote in the New Hampshire primary, though registered Democrats will carry the bulk of votes.
- Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren have had the strongest ground games in the Granite State, with Buttigieg surging after Iowa.
- Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang are wildcards with fervent followings that could make things interesting.
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DURHAM, N.H. - In between The Strokes taking the stage to play new songs and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez eliciting thunderous applause, Sen. Bernie Sanders gave his usual speech and flexed his campaign's muscle to a crowd of more than 7,500 at the University of New Hampshire.
The UNH rally featuring the popular House Democrat from New York and the early-aughts' most lauded indie r0ck band boasted the largest attendance of any event in the first-in-the-nation primary this cycle, with Sanders packing nearly 2,000 into a gym at Keene State College the night before.
In 2016, Sanders walloped Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, propelling his campaign to its highly consequential runner-up finish, setting in motion not only a political movement, but reforms to the primary process that have affected everything from debate qualifications to the new sets of data released in the Iowa Caucuses.
This time around, the field is more crowded, the landscape drastically changed with Donald Trump in the White House, and the primary more charged than ever after the debacle in Iowa last week.
Here are five key dynamics to watch for as the results come in tonight.
1. Bernie's Backyard
Associated Press
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., stands on stage with his wife Jane Sanders, left, after speaking at a campaign stop at the Whittemore Center Arena at the University of New Hampshire, Monday, Feb. 10, 2020, in Durham, N.H. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
Out of the 60 percent of the vote Sanders won in 2016 over Clinton in New Hampshire, the bulk of that support came from independent voters, and his highest margins came in the corridor of three counties along the Vermont border - Cheshire, Sullivan and Grafton Counties - known as "Bernie's Backyard."
In Cheshire County, where he held the big Keene State rally Sunday night, Sanders posted his highest margins of the night, winning 70 percent of the vote. All through the Connecticut River Valley, Sanders managed to pick up around two-out-of-three Democratic primary votes.
While the area is not as populated as the southeast corner of the Granite State - where Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties account for just over half of registered voters - Sanders' margins will be a solid barometer of his ability to maintain a lead statewide.
Particularly around the highly educated precincts near Dartmouth College in Hanover and around Keene State and Antioch University New England in Keene, former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren will be looking to eat away at Sanders' margins with active field offices and months of canvassing.
2. Pete Looming
AP Photo/Charles Krupa
Democratic presidential candidates former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., shake hands on stage Friday, Feb. 7, 2020, before the start of a Democratic presidential primary debate hosted by ABC News, Apple News, and WMUR-TV at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H.
While Sanders has held onto a lead in New Hampshire polling in the weeks leading up to primary day, Buttigieg has seen the characteristic post-Iowa bump after effectively pushing Sanders to a draw in delegate equivalents.
Outlasting senators, governors and other more widely known Democrats, Buttigieg's New Hampshire operation scaled up rapidly over the spring and summer, riding strong fundraising through the fall to reach a level of staffing and field office distribution only rivaled by Sanders and Warren.
With a bevy of endorsements and crossover appeal among more moderate Democrats and independents, Buttigieg could edge out Sanders if enough undecided voters break his way.
Buttigieg saw a consistent increase in crowd sizes and enthusiasm upon each return to the Granite State, and despite two neighboring state senators boasting formidable get-out-the-vote operations and familiarity among the New Hampshire Primary electorate, former Mayor Pete has put himself in a position to be an unlikely victor.
3. Klo-mentum
Associated Press
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn arrives to speak at the McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Dinner, Saturday, Feb. 8, 2020, in Manchester, N.H. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
Minnesota Sen. Amy Kl0buchar's campaign has claimed to have momentum after several strong debate performances, but on the ground in New Hampshire this week something was markedly different.
For the first time after months of campaigning across the Granite State, Klobuchar was drawing overflow crowds.
Her roster of endorsements grew, voters seeing her for the first time laughed at her jokes, and she took every chance she had to mention her backing from the editorial boards of three major New Hampshire newspapers: The New Hampshire Union Leader (formerly known as the Manchester Union Leader), Seacoast Online and The Keene Sentinel.
Some tracking polls showed Klobuchar's post-debate bump halting Buttigieg's momentum, and New Hampshire political observers have begun to speculate whether she could finish third ahead of Biden and Warren.
With around a quarter of likely primary voters remaining undecided on voting day and many others telling pollsters they could still be swayed, the upside is high for a Klobuchar campaign seeing its strongest support in New Hampshire so far.
As to whether Klobuchar peaked at the right time or too late remains to be seen, but her numbers could spell trouble for every contender other than Sanders tonight.
4. Independents
Klaus M / flickr
Often imagined as swing voters found in diners, independents can have varying degrees of impact in the New Hampshire Primary.
New Hampshire's open primary format frequently draws a tangent of discussion on cable news panels, but its impact on the result is slightly overstated.
Campaigns make efforts to court independents, but no candidate in either major party has been able to win the primary in the modern era without securing a plurality of party-affiliated voters.
But despite the mathematical difficulty of winning the primary on the backs on independents, those unaffiliated voters can still tip the scales for the eventual winner and cause problems for other campaigns looking to pull off a top three finish.
Sanders was able to run up his margins against Clinton in 2016 by 45 percentage points among independents, but only held onto a lead of one point among registered Democrats.
How those independents vote - and, crucially, how many of them show up to vote without a competitive GOP primary - could exceed expectations from polling or lead to disappointment among campaigns banking on a late surge from non-Democrats.
5. The Wildcards - Yang and Gabbard
JIM WATSON / Getty Images
Democratic presidential hopefuls US Senator from California Kamala Harris (L) and US Representative for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district Tulsi Gabbard (R) listen to US entrepreneur Andrew Yang (C) delivering his closing statement during the second round of the second Democratic primary debate of the 2020 presidential campaign season hosted by CNN at the Fox Theatre in Detroit, Michigan on July 31, 2019. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP) (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang have not garnered as much national media attention as either of their campaigns would prefer.
Both have small but fervent followings, with Yang riding a wave of small donors and strong New Hampshire polling to a debate stage return last week in Manchester.
Yang performed poorly in Iowa, with the campaign laying off staffers and telegraphing to supporters that a top four finish in New Hampshire will be necessary for the run to continue.
Gabbard all but brought operations in Iowa to a halt months ago, and instead rented a house outside of Manchester in New Hampshire, spending more time in the Granite State than any candidate left in the race.
Both candidates consistently draw libertarians, current and former Trump supporters as well as disillusioned independents to their events, often with non-Democrats outnumbering Democrats when asked for a show of hands.
Gabbard supporters who say they are registered Republicans often ask about whether they can vote for her in the primary, only to find out they missed the de-registration deadline in their town. Independents, on the other hand, have a much easier time as they can temporarily register for either party at any polling place.
Many Gabbard and Yang supporters say they supported Sanders in 2016, and if enough show up to vote, their sum total could spell trouble for Sanders at the margins in addition to making the night more interesting.