2 charts show how the coronavirus is spreading faster outside China, and the next wave of catastrophe could be across Europe

• Two charts exploring increases in new coronavirus cases indicate worrying trends for countries outside China and European countries outside Italy.
• The charts, published by economic research consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, showed a sharp rise in new cases in European outside Italy, the worst-affected country outside China, on Tuesday.
• Global growth in the virus outside mainland China also leapt up at a pace which would result in one million people outside China infected by April, the researchers said.
• Meanwhile China has been recording fewer new cases in recent days, suggesting the country has turned a corner in the outbreak.
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Two new charts are showing sharp increases in the number of new coronavirus cases outside China and within European countries, suggesting they could see the next wave of catastrophe.

Data compiled by economic research consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics showed the dramatic increase in new cases recorded in recent days outside of China, where the outbreak began, and European countries outside Italy, currently the worst-infected country outside China.

Both charts run up to Tuesday, March 10.

Cases outside China have spiked, and the trend could continue

While China has recorded fewer and fewer cases this week, the number of new cases recorded outside mainland China leapt up to more than 5,500 on Tuesday, according to the chart.

At this pace, cases outside mainland China could double roughly every four days, and would take non-Chinese cases up to one million by early April, the consultancy said.

Meanwhile, China appears to have turned a corner with the outbreak, recording just 24 new cases and 19 on Monday, according to Reuters. At its peak, it was recording some 4,000 new cases a day.

New coronavirus cases in European countries outside Italy jumped

Another chart focusing on Europe showed more than 1,400 new cases recorded across Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK on Tuesday. This was a dramatic uptick from the just over 400 new cases the day before.

Italy is currently the worst-hit country outside China. Its number of coronavirus cases surpassed 10,000 and reported 163 deaths on Tuesday night, marking the highest death toll recorded in the space of a single day. The country went into a strict nationwide lockdown on Tuesday.

Countries surrounding countries could be in "real trouble" if the current trends continue in those places, Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a briefing note.

"If this continues, much more drastic action will be required, with internal travel bans now much more likely," the consultancy said. "The economic impact on Europe as a whole will be very severe if measures anything like as aggressive as in Italy are required."

The European Commission drew up a 25 billion-euro ($28.3 billion) investment fund to fight the economic impact of the coronavirus on Tuesday, the Financial Times reported.

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