BJP-led NDA to win clear majority in Lok Sabha elections, predict most exit polls

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to hold onto power at the Centre with a significant majority, marking its third consecutive victory in the Lok Sabha elections, according to exit polls released on Saturday.

Exit polls indicated that the NDA is set to surpass its 2019 performance when it secured 352 seats. Some polls even suggested that the BJP could improve on its 2019 count of 303 seats.

In 2019, the BJP-led NDA had already improved its tally from the 2014 elections. Now, exit polls are forecasting another upward trend for the alliance. Estimates for the INDIA bloc, encompassing parties opposed to the BJP, varied among pollsters but generally indicated a better performance compared to the Congress-led UPA in 2019.
"Psephologiest are at their best in analysing exit polls. The actual seat count may be a little different on June 04. We also need to check the exact gains or losses in vote share by the two alliances. Unless we get a surprise in the balance exit poll predictions, Indian markets may not react majorly to these numbers on a closing basis. In any case, the disappointment or the euphoria may settle down in a couple of days, and the focus may shift to the policy announcements in the first 100 days of the new Govt.," says Dhiraj Relli, MD & CEO, HDFC Securities.

"The fact that the BJP could return to power is good for continuing and accelerating the reform process. This outcome was mainly on the expected lines. Hence, markets may, after the initial excitement, wait out for the new path set out by the latest government."

The Republic PMarq exit poll gave 359 of 543 seats to NDA, 154 to INDIA bloc and 30 to others. Republic Matrize poll gave 353-368 seats to NDA, 118-113 to the INDIA bloc and 43-48 to others. The NewsX Dynamics gave 371 seats to NDA, 125 to INDIA bloc and 47 to others.

NewsX Dynamics exit poll has also predicted seats for different parties and said Congress will marginally improve from its tally of 52 seats in 2019. The Jan Ki Baat survey predicted 377 seats for NDA, 151 for INDIA bloc and 15 for others.


Moreover, BJP is also poised to open its account in southern states like Kerala. Axis My India and Times, VMR, and Times Now ETG predict one seat for BJP in Kerala. Times Now says Thrissur parliamentary seat could be won by the BJP candidate Suresh Gopi! The exit poll predicted that the ruling Left Democratic Front would get four seats in Kerala. It predicted that others will get 32 seats.

India TV poll gave 371-401 seats for NDA, 109-139 seats for INDIA bloc and 28-38 seats for others. According to News18 mega exit poll, NDA is poised to win 355 to 370 seats, INDIA bloc 125 to 140 seats and others 42 to 52 seats.

According to most exit polls, the BJP is expected to secure just over 300 seats independently. Most opposition leaders, however, rejected the exit polls predictions as unscientific and not a true reflection of the ground reality.

"Most of the exit polls had predicted a victory for the BJP in the 2021 assembly elections. But we all know what the actual results were -- TMC won a two-thirds majority. We believe in people's polls, not opinion polls or exit polls. The TMC will win more than 30 Lok Sabha seats in the state," TMC party leader Santanu Sen claimed.

Congress candidate from Gurdaspur Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa said, "Whatever the exit polls say, INDIA alliance will form the government. The voters of the country have realised BJP's false promises and now their concern is how the country should move forward. The farmers have not forgotten the atrocities that they had to face regarding MSP. They were not allowed to enter Delhi. Asking for votes based on caste is dangerous for the country."

The News24-Today's Chanakya exit poll forecasts the NDA winning 400 seats, with a margin of plus or minus 15 seats. The INDIA bloc is projected to obtain 107 seats with a margin of plus or minus 11 seats, while other parties are estimated to get 36 seats, plus or minus nine.

The Times Now-ETG exit poll predicts the NDA will receive 358 seats, with the INDIA bloc securing 152 seats and others getting 33.

The Lok Sabha elections, conducted in seven phases starting from April 19, witnessed Prime Minister Narendra Modi leading the BJP campaign. The votes will be counted on June 4.

The exit poll results were released after the final phase of voting concluded on Saturday.

Simultaneous assembly elections were also conducted in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, and Sikkim, along with assembly bypolls in several other states.

(With inputs from ANI and the Times of India)