- This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.
Good morning! I've been known to make a bet or two in my day, which is why I'm wondering the odds you could get betting you'd have four kids with the same birthday.
In today's big story, the economy is heading in the right direction, but consumers aren't buying it.
What's on deck:
- Markets: What's good for economic growth could eventually be bad for stocks.
- Tech: Check out the leaked MrBeast handbook revealing his "secret weapons" for success.
- Business: The DOJ just hit Visa with an antitrust lawsuit over its debit cards.
But first, the vibes are all off.
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The big story
Lacking confidence
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the stock market reached all-time highs, and the risk of a recession is gone.
Things seem to be going really well for the economy, right?
Wrong.
Consumers aren't feeling bullish about the economy these days. In fact, they're quite pessimistic. US consumer confidence suffered its biggest drop in three years this month, according to data from the Conference Board.
We've been here before. For much of 2022 and 2023, Americans were in a "vibecession" where their perception of the economy was much worse than the data indicated. Last time around, pesky inflation was keeping things like groceries and housing costs high, even as the rest of the economy showed improvement.
This time, the labor market's the culprit, writes Business Insider's Juliana Kaplan. But it's not mass layoffs most people are worried about. Having a job isn't the issue — the unemployment rate is just 4.2% — as much as finding the next gig.
It's no wonder that consumers aged 35 to 54 suffered the biggest drop in confidence, according to the Conference Board. This group, which is in its prime earning years, is facing a job market that's keeping them stuck in place.
The labor market isn't a lost cause, though.
The Fed has acknowledged its top priority is keeping an eye on job growth and unemployment.
We'll get a sense of which direction things are headed on October 4 when we get September's payroll data.
Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, Mike Wilson, recently outlined the best- and worst-case scenarios for the numbers in regard to the stock market. If unemployment dips below 4.1% and non-farm payroll can surpass 150,000, consider it game on for a big fourth quarter for stocks.
But if unemployment climbs to 4.3% and non-farm payroll drops below 100,000, buckle up for a bumpy ride.
The stock market isn't representative of the entire economy, as we've already covered. But continued success there could give companies more confidence to start hiring again.
News brief
Top headlines
- Caroline Ellison was sentenced to 2 years in prison for her role in the FTX and Alameda Research fraud scheme.
- Brett Favre reveals he's been diagnosed with Parkinson's disease.
- Hezbollah launched its deepest strike on Israel yet — targeting Tel Aviv.
- Alice Walton, the world's richest woman, just joined the $100 billion club.
3 things in markets
- Retirement, so confusing. Social security curveballs are making retirement age a nightmare to wade through for workers who have had both private sector and government careers. The murky provisions have left some workers with a bitter $0 in benefits.
- One of the biggest risks to stocks could be the economy growing. Wait, what? Economist Steven Blitz outlined a scenario where the Fed keeps rates too low for too long, creating a red-hot economy. The end result could be another bout of inflation and the Fed raising rates again.
- China's stimmy package is a win for emerging markets. China's stimulus plan to boost its ailing economy sent emerging markets indexes to their highest level since April 2022. But some analysts aren't sold on China's strategy saving its economy in the long run.
3 things in tech
- Amazon cut a popular remote-work benefit. Months before its strict RTO policy kicks in, the company has already scrapped the option to work up to four weeks a year fully remote. The benefit allowed people to stay close to family while working during the holidays.
- MrBeast's "secret weapons" for workplace success. A leaked handbook reveals the YouTuber's sacred pillars for success and the expectations he set for employees. "We aren't stuck in any old ways of thinking and you can literally turn anything into content," he wrote in the document. Former employees said his principles weren't always followed.
- TikTok waves the white flag on music streaming. TikTok is abandoning its plan to beat Spotify at its own game: It's shutting down the TikTok Music app in November. However, the video-sharing platform will still be a major player in music discovery.
3 things in business
- A boom and bust your city should copy and paste. Austin, Texas, enjoyed a real-estate boom during the pandemic, but that high has since subsided. While that's created short-term pain for those who bought near the peak, the quick boom-bust cycle will be good for the city in the long term because of one key effect: It allowed developers to build, build, build.
- Visa just got hit with an antitrust lawsuit. The US Justice Department filed a lawsuit accusing the payment processing giant of engaging in anticompetitive behavior and imposing unfair costs on customers and merchants. Prosecutors say the company's actions affect "the price of nearly everything."
- Generation Never-Called-in-Sick. Ron Sherman had what he considered a typical baby-boomer attitude towards work: Be loyal to your employer, always give 100%, and never call out sick unless you really have to. But he lost 360 hours of unused sick leave after a brutal layoff. Now, at retirement's doorstep, he thinks Gen Z might have the right idea after all.
What's happening today
- SEC chair testifies to Senate banking committee.
- G20 foreign ministers meet.
- Mark Zuckerberg addresses Meta Connect developer conference on AI and AR.
The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jack Sommers, deputy editor, in London. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.