- Incumbent political leaders across the globe have struggled in recent elections.
- Voter backlash against high inflation is among the top explanations.
The balance of power in governments worldwide could change significantly next year — a lot of it is due to how much people hate inflation.
2024 is a historic election year — over half the world's population lives in countries where elections are expected to be held. Voters will choose leaders in 40 national elections, including the United States, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia, Pakistan, South Africa, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and Taiwan.
Recent polling — and election results over the past couple of years — suggest that many incumbent leaders are in trouble. The governing parties have suffered defeats in New Zealand, South Korea, and Australia. In France and Denmark, for instance, incumbent leaders won reelection but lost their governing majorities. Additionally, the polls suggest today's leaders are far from popular in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada.
There's one thing most incumbents across the globe have in common that might partially explain their shared unpopularity, and it's not their place on the political spectrum. They've all presided over an era of high inflation.
In the US, inflation is among the top explanations for why Americans have been so dissatisfied with an otherwise healthy economy, and many blame President Joe Biden for the high prices they've experienced.
It's not just the US where people are fixated on inflation. McKinsey polling of individuals in five European countries in the third quarter of last year found that inflation was the top concern of over two-thirds of consumers. The same factors that have contributed to high prices in the US, including supply chain disruptions and geopolitical conflicts, have also impacted the rest of the world.
In many countries, inflation is now lower than a year ago, which could provide some hope for incumbent leaders.
In the US, for instance, high inflation didn't stop Democrats from performing strongly in 2022's midterm elections. In recent months, inflation has declined, and Americans' opinions on the economy, by some measures, have grown a bit rosier.
But it's also possible the damage has been done and that even slowing inflation won't be enough for many voters to back incumbent leaders like Biden.
While prices have fallen in some spending categories like furniture and household appliances over the past year, things on which people spend more often, like groceries, have become more expensive.
In the US, it's historically taken a recession to knock out a president running for reelection. Since 1948, the incumbent has won all eight elections that didn't occur during or soon after a recession, per Goldman Sachs. The US isn't in a recession, but some experts expect one next year.
If the US economy does avoid a downturn — and Biden's polling doesn't improve — next year's election cycle could be historic in more ways than one.