The war in Ukraine is making Egypt's food crisis worse, so neighboring countries are pouring $20 billion into its economy to try to avoid disaster

• The war is hitting Egypt hard — from a food shortage to an economy that relies heavily on Russian tourists.
• Neighboring countries Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are giving Egypt more than $20 billion in aid.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made a perilous situation in Egypt even worse. Its neighbors are here to help.

Egypt imports most of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, and Russian visitors make up a large swath of its tourism industry — or at least, they used to. To help out, Qatar allotted $5 billion to Egypt this week, the UAE $3 billion, and Saudi Arabia $15 billion. Some of the money is going toward Egypt's central bank, which will assist with food subsidies for the country's citizens as prices skyrocket. Other funds will go toward Egypt's agriculture sector.

After all, Egypt wasn't doing great even before the war. More than 40% of Egyptians reported lacking money for food at some point in 2021, according to Gallup.

"The transfer helps alleviate short-term funding pressures and should help sealing the IMF program as it covers part of the expected funding gap," said Mohamed Abu Basha, head of macroeconomic research at Egyptian investment bank EFG Hermes. The International Monetary Fund consists of 190 countries and lends money to nations in crisis — Egypt recently asked the group for help.

The disruption in Ukraine and Russia has imperiled nearly a third of the world's wheat, 80% of its sunflower oil supply, and 19% of the world's corn. With the world's food supply disrupted and more people are at risk of starvation, leaders in the region are also concerned about unrest, given that food scarcity has fueled rebellion there in the past. Donations from other countries reflect the political calculus of their leaders, with Saudi Arabia and Egypt having a shared interest in not having the US get involved, for example. Plus, hunger is political lighter fluid, experts say.

"The prices of food mobilized people," Rami Zurayk, an agronomy professor at the American University of Beirut, told PBS NewsHour about the Arab Spring, of which Egypt was a key part.

Russia's invasion exacerbated a food crisis in the making

The food situation in Egypt could be dire, data shows.

The country received 70% of its grain imports from Russia and Ukraine in 2019. The war is hitting the country hard as well as other nations in the Middle East and North Africa region, such as Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. Countries like Lebanon are receiving some aid from neighboring countries and the UN.

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated a food crisis that caused 10 million people in the Middle East and North Africa region to lose their ability to get enough food in 2020 alone," Sarah Saadoun, senior researcher at Human Rights Watch, said last week. "Governments should do everything in their power to protect people's right to food such as by providing adequate subsidies or by intervening to control prices, or by providing proper social protection."

This comes during a time when Egypt has already been looking to cut down on food subsidies.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are politically motivated to help make those subsidies and social protections sustainable. Saudi Arabia values Egypt's military presence, for instance, and both countries fear American intervention by the Biden administration, according to Arab Center Washington DC, a nonpartisan research organization.

Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE helped Egypt's economy in 2013, after its former President Mohamed Morsi was ousted. Morsi hailed from the Muslim Brotherhood group, which is now banned in Egypt and classified as a terrorist organization. The group was seen as a threat by Gulf monarchies, and Saudi Arabia and UAE supported Morsi's removal. Qatar similarly rallied to support Egypt after tensions engendered by the Muslim Brotherhood.

These countries also have reason to fear a rebellion in Egypt due to food scarcity. The Arab Spring, a wave of pro-democracy protests and uprisings in the Middle East a decade ago, started in Tunisia but spread throughout the region.

"While the riots that swept through Syria in March 2011 are clearly a reaction to a brutal regime far from the needs of the people and a response to the wave of political change that began in Tunisia," Giulia Soffiantini, a researcher for the Global Food Security Journal, wrote in 2020. "The civil war and the rise of rebel groups exemplifies the potential effects of food insecurity on political instability as a catalyst for social unrest."