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The possibility of stagflation hitting the US economy isn't off the table, JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon says

Sep 11, 2024, 01:09 IST
Business Insider
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon.Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
  • JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the worst outcome for the US economy is stagflation.
  • Speaking at a Tuesday conference, Dimon said he "wouldn't take it off the table."
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Even as inflation approaches the Federal Reserve's target, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says stagflation is still a possibility.

"I would say the worst outcome is stagflation — recession, higher inflation," Dimon said.

"And by the way, I wouldn't take it off the table," he added, speaking at a conference from the Council of Institutional Investors on Tuesday, CNBC reported.

Recent inflation data has shown signs of easing toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with CPI cooling to 2.9% year-over-year in July — the first time the inflation rate has dipped below 3% in over three years.

But other factors could increasingly play a role in driving inflation back up, especially as the US economy remains fragile after a period of rising interest rates, Dimon said. He pointed to increased government budget deficits and spending on infrastructure.

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"They're all inflationary, basically in the short run, the next couple of years," he said. "So, it's hard to look at [it] and say, 'Well, no, we're out of the woods.' I don't think so."

Dimon has previously expressed worries about a pending recession and sticky inflation. In August, he reiterated that he sees just a 35% to 40% chance of a "soft landing," but said that a recession wouldn't totally break the US economy.

"I'm fairly optimistic that if we have a mild recession, even a harder one, we will be OK," Dimon told CNBC last month. "Of course, I'm very sympathetic to people who lose their jobs. You don't want a hard landing."

Dimon said in particular that he's skeptical the Fed can reach maximum employment while targeting its 2% inflation goal.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized that the central bank will weigh both inflation and labor market data ahead of cutting interest rates.

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And with inflation data cooling, the Fed seems more focused on the labor market. A surprise hike in unemployment in July triggered worries of a recession and sparked a market rout, while the August jobs report came in line with expectations, bringing the unemployment rate down slightly to 4.2%.

The next CPI reading is due on Wednesday, a week before the Fed will make its decision on interest rates on September 18.

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