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The job market is clearly starting to slow down

Apr 8, 2023, 03:08 IST
Business Insider
Construction workers on a job site on March 10, 2023, in Miami, Florida.Joe Raedle/Getty Images
  • The US added 236,000 jobs in March less than the revised gain for February.
  • The unemployment rate went from 3.6% to 3.5%.
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The US didn't see as strong job growth in March as it did in February.

That's according to Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The US added 236,000 nonfarm payrolls in March, falling just short of the median forecast of 239,000 from economists. The job gain in March was also below February's revised gain.

February's gain was revised from 311,000 to 326,000. January's gain was updated from 504,000 to 472,000. That means nonfarm payroll employment seems to be showing some signs of slowing. Job growth of 236,000 is still good, but isn't as high as what the US has seen in the last several months. However, Friday's jobs report does still point to a robust economy.

"Even if it's moderating or slowing down, the labor market's still moving at a brisk pace," Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at Indeed Hiring Lab, told Insider.

He noted that despite the moderation, Friday's report is a sign that the US is seeing a "resilient, strong labor market."

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"This report is a Goldilocks report," Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor, told Insider. "It was really great to see that job gains remain strong, and the labor market is resilient, but we're also seeing evidence that things are cooling off gradually. So I think the Fed looks at today's report as a really healthy indicator. And then on top of that, we hit some major milestones, with the Black unemployment rate falling to the lowest level on record."

The low unemployment rate was one positive in the report. The unemployment rate also moved down in March. The rate changed from 3.6% to 3.5%. The economists' forecast was 3.6%, which was the rate in February. The labor force participation rate also increased from 62.5% to 62.6%.

"I think the rising labor force participation rate is the Fed's best friend because it's giving the labor market a way to continue to add jobs without adding inflationary pressure," Zhao said.

"I would say that the blemish on today's report is we saw some weakness, especially in the goods-producing sectors," Zhao said on Friday.

Construction and retail trade both saw a drop in their employment, a decline of 9,000 and a decline of roughly 15,000 respectively. Zhao said the decline in the construction sector could be because of "warmer weather in January and February" and noted that the industry is "very seasonal."

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Financial activities and manufacturing saw smaller drops than construction or retail trade in March. Leisure and hospitality saw employment soar from February to March, increasing by 72,000.

While the payroll gain in March was below February's job creation, the labor market is still showing some strength, according to today's report and Job Openings and Labor Turnover data.

Job openings tumbled by 632,000 in February to 9.9 million. Zhao noted in a Twitter post earlier this week that this is "the first time since May 2021" that monthly job openings in the US were under 10 million. However, the level is still above the 7 million openings in February 2020 before the pandemic.

There were 4.0 million quits in February, up by 146,000 from January's estimate. Hires continued to be about 6 million — with 6.2 million in February compared to 6.3 million in January.

"Overall, the February JOLTS report pointed to normalizing demand for labor, following the mass rehiring frenzy of 2021-2022," Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, said.

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"But it suggested that some labor market dynamics may be permanently altered in the post-pandemic world: employee quits seem to be permanently higher, and layoffs permanently lower, than was normal in the twenty years before the pandemic," she added. "In other words, workers seem to have more control over when and how they switch jobs."

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