Policy- Getting a promotion didn't stop many US workers from joining the Great Resignation.
- In fact, an ADP analysis found that US workers were more likely to leave after getting promoted.
If you just got promoted, you might want to think about quitting.
In a recent report, the ADP Research Institute analyzed the job histories of over 1 million US workers at companies with at least 1,000 employees between 2019 and 2022.
Using this data, ADP researchers built a statistical model to predict which types of workers were most likely to leave their jobs based on a variety of criteria, including managerial level, job requirements, gender, months since hire, and months since a promotion.
Per the model, 29% of workers quit within a month after their first promotion.
If they hadn't been promoted, the researchers estimated that only 18% of these workers would have left. It wasn't until six months after a promotion that the promoted and non-promoted had roughly the same odds of leaving their companies.
The three-year period the researchers analyzed was right in the midst of the job-switching boom that's been called the Great Resignation. While the 29% figure might not be quite so high today, the question remains: Why were recently promoted workers more likely to leave?
It's possible some workers were already planning to switch jobs, and getting promoted didn't change their minds. But others may have realized that their promotion made them more attractive to other employers — and used this to their advantage.
"Maybe they received a credential, a sign of confidence from their company, that could be marketed to other companies," Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist, said in a video accompanying the report's release.
"The key insight here is that employers should be aware that when you promote good people, it raises their credibility and their potential marketability within the job market," she added.
Over the past few years, strong demand for workers has helped Americans in lower-earning professions receive big pay bumps — and many changed jobs to get those raises. But promotions may have been another factor helping these workers.
"We found that people in jobs that didn't require a high-school diploma were six times more likely to leave their companies with a promotion," Richardson said, adding, "That credibility, that badge of promotion, really added a lot of value to the marketplace. And we saw that some workers were able to switch jobs and boost pay."
Promotions are fairly rare — only 4.5% of workers are promoted within two years of being hired. But if you're lucky enough to land one, ADP's research suggests that you shouldn't underestimate the impact it could have on your next job search.