Russia's war pushed Europe to a tipping point on wind and solar

• So far this year in the EU, wind and solar generated more electricity than fossil fuels.
• Renewable energy met 50% of EU's power needs while fossil fuels met 27%, an Ember analysis found.

For the first time, wind and solar generated more of the European Union's electricity than fossil fuels during the first half of the year.

Wind and solar accounted for an all-time high of 30% of the region's energy needs, according to an analysis by the think tank Ember. Oil, gas, and coal contributed a combined 27% of power — a 17% drop compared with the same period in 2023.

It's a remarkable milestone considering that two years ago, Europe was racing to import gas because Russia cut off supplies following its invasion of Ukraine. Gas prices spiked and demand dropped. Since then, demand has started to rebound, and it's being met with renewables. Hydropower made a comeback after drought eased in certain parts of the EU, meaning that when combined with wind and solar, renewables generated half the bloc's electricity in the first half of the year.

"Milestones like this point towards a very clear direction of travel," Chris Rosslowe, an analyst at Ember, told Business Insider. "The question is not if, but when, renewables will dominate the European power system."

The trend raises questions about the rapid build-out of gas-export terminals, known as LNG terminals, in the US and Canada to ship more fuel to Europe. Ember found that so far this year, gas generation in the EU dropped 14% compared with the same period in 2023, even as electricity demand ticked up. A mild winter helped, but the rise of renewables pushed out fossil fuels in countries like Germany, Spain, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium.

In a separate report, Ember forecasted a global LNG supply glut by 2026 and a substantial drop in EU gas demand by 2030.

"There was an urgent, short-term need to diversify gas supply sources in Europe when Russia invaded Ukraine," Sarah Brown, Ember's Europe program director, said. But the rush to increase LNG exports from places like the US ignores the reality of rapidly declining gas demand in Europe, she added.

"It is now clear that the global supply of LNG that is online and under construction far outweighs projected demand," Brown said.

In 2023, the US became the largest LNG exporter in the world, surpassing Australia and Qatar, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Europe is the main destination for those exports and demand is expected to rise through this year. Shipments to Asia are also growing. Five new LNG terminals are under construction in the US, and more than a dozen more could be on the way depending on the outcome of a Biden administration review of their climate impacts.

But the gas could eventually have trouble finding a home in European countries like Germany, which added the most wind and solar capacity of any EU member during the first half of the year. Germany also closed 15 coal power plants in April and imported more nuclear electricity from France.

Rosslowe said that Germany's transition away from fossil fuels reflects policy decisions made several years ago. In 2021, the government set more ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, including phasing out coal by 2030, and changed some permitting rules to speed up the construction of solar and wind projects.

Ember's report said that while it's unclear how swiftly fossil-fuel use will drop across Europe, a pipeline of solar and wind projects suggests this tipping point could be permanent.