Russia's economy faces a demographic disaster and risks seeing its population reduced by half by the end of this century, think tank says

• Russia's population could shrink by half by the end of the century, the Atlantic Council said.
• The Russian-Ukraine war has accelerated the population decline.

Russia's economy has a dire demographic problem on its hands, and the nation could see its population slashed in half by the end of the century, according to the Atlantic Council.

The report from the Washington, DC, think tank — written by Harley Balzer, a professor emeritus at Georgetown University — points to Russia's long-running population decline. The nation's overall population growth has shrunk over the past 10 years, according to World Bank data.

That decline has been exacerbated by the Russian-Ukraine war. Russian casualties climbed above 300,000 at the end of 2023, according to US Intelligence officials, and about a million Russians fled the country soon after Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

The demographic trend spells trouble for Russia's economy, which is already dealing with a severe worker shortage. At the end of 2023, Russia was short a record 5 million workers, according to an estimate from the Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Economics.

Russia has turned to migrant and even prison labor to supplement its workforce, but those aren't sustainable solutions to its population problem, Balzer says.

"Putin's government has not evinced visible concern that Russia's population might be cut in half by century's end. Unless Russia's leaders can develop and finance a more effective set of policies, the only solutions to population decline will be a combination of incorporating non-Russian territory and/or immigration from Asia and Africa," Balzer said in the report this week. "As Russia's population continues to decline, immigrants will be increasingly vital to economic recovery," he added.

Experts have said a shrinking population could result in a number of problems for Russia's economy, like lower growth and productivity. By 2026, that could put Russia's economy on track to fall behind Indonesia's, where population is rising, the Atlantic Council previously predicted.

"Putin's choice of timing for military aggression in Ukraine might have reflected an understanding that Russia's demographic (and economic) situation would not improve in the next two decades. However, the war is turning a growing crisis into a catastrophe," they added.

Russia's economy isn't on solid footing to begin with, particularly as its invasion of Ukraine grows more costly and damages its economic ties to global markets. Moscow is on track to fall into a severe recession by the end of the year, one UC Berkeley economist previously told Business Insider, pointing to Russia's collapsed energy trade and its waning access to the US dollar.

Correction: August 9, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated who wrote the Atlantic Council report. It was written by Harley Balzer, a professor emeritus at Georgetown University, not multiple Atlantic Council researchers.