Remote work could help the US make more babies, have affordable housing, and tackle the mental health and climate crises, a Stanford economist says

• Experts have spent the last few years examining how remote work could impact US society.
• Their research spans areas like the birth rate, housing, mental health, and climate change.

Remote work probably isn't going away anytime soon. The real question is whether it's part of the solution to some of America's biggest problems.

Ever since the pandemic forced many Americans to work from home, experts began studying whether remote work has a positive, negative, or negligible impact on US society. Their research has spanned not just the workplace, but into areas like housing affordability, mental health, climate emissions, and even the country's birth rate.

While some companies are calling workers back to the office, office occupancy has begun to flatline, suggesting the trend will persist — and researchers will get the chance to monitor remote work's effects over the decades to come.

The share of work being conducted from home rose from 5% in 2019 to over 60% in 2020, Stanford economist and leading remote work expert Nick Bloom told Insider. It's since fallen to roughly 27%, but Bloom expects it to stabilize around 25%.

Insider spoke with Bloom, whose research on working from home spans nearly 20 years, about whether remote work could have a role to play in solving the US's falling birth rate, housing crisis, climate emergency, and worsening youth mental health.

The US is running low on people

In 2020, the US fertility rate fell to 55.8 births per 1,000 women, the lowest rate on record and roughly half of what it was in the 1960's. In the decades ahead, this could not only stunt US economic growth, but make it difficult for the federal government to generate sufficient tax revenue to fund programs like Social Security.

While this may be more of a medium to long-term problem, the US is arguably already short on people. The US had over 10 million job openings as of February, well above historical norms, and immigration hasn't filled in the gaps in recent years.

Remote work might be part of the solution. It could make it easier for companies to recruit workers in other states — or even countries — to fill openings when they can't find workers nearby. Plus, the flexibility to work from home could bring more people back into the workforce, like parents who quit their office jobs due to childcare needs and people with disabilities.

In 2021, remote work may already have been among the reasons the US fertility rate ticked up to 56.6 births per 1,000 women, according to a new Economic Innovation Group paper. Analyzing survey data of 3,000 US women, the researchers found that women who worked fully or partially remotely were both more likely to have children than full-time office workers.

If Americans are able to save time on their commutes and dedicate more time to their families, it's possible this could make raising children seem a bit less daunting for some couples.

Bloom's research found that on average, US remote workers save 55 minutes per day working from home compared to those who commuted to work. He says he's currently collecting data on the fertility subject, but believes the EIG study is on to something.

"Our pretty strong view is work-from-home, by easing childcare, will increase fertility rates," he said. "As economists, we know when childcare is hard and expensive people tend to have fewer kids, with dozens of studies showing this."

Cutting back on long commutes could also make it easier for people to live in suburban areas, where there's a larger supply of homes big enough to accommodate families.

America has a housing crisis

The US is short on housing, and it's among the key reasons homes and rents are so expensive for so many people. But remote workers often have more flexibility to choose where they live, which means they can opt for more affordable areas.

"People are able to consider affordability more, while putting less weight on, 'I need to be near the office,'" Adam Ozimek, the chief economist at the Economic Innovation Group, previously told Insider.

While the influx of city dwellers moving to "Zoomtowns" has pushed up home prices in those areas, they've helped ease prices in the cities workers left. And given many areas outside cities have stronger records of building — and building less expensively — they may be able to support the newcomers and keep home prices from surging.

"These are cheaper areas to build," Bloom said. "So longer-run opening up construction on land further out around cities will lower the cost of housing. So this is clearly a big win."

Additionally, some of the newly vacant office buildings could eventually be converted into apartments — which could help increase housing supply and push down prices. For a variety of reasons, however, this could be a slow-moving process.

One way remote work might make people's housing costs a bit more expensive: Some people may decide they need more space for their at-home offices, or more space in general given they're spending so much time at home.

Young Americans' mental health is plummeting

Teenagers, in particular teenage girls, are in the midst of their worst mental health crisis in a decade, according to CDC data. In the years to come, these teenagers will become the next generation of workers.

Studies have come to mixed conclusions about remote work's impact on mental health. Some have suggested that the flexibility of working from home can help workers avoid annoying commutes, stressful office environments, and even workplace racism. Others, however, have found that it can make it harder to establish a work-life balance and lead to isolation and loneliness, particularly among younger employees. Some researchers have even argued a commute is good for one's mental health.

Bloom thinks a hybrid model is the best approach.

"The evidence I have seen shows that 'hybrid' is good for mental health, as you avoid one or two days a week of commuting which is stressful and unpleasant," he said. "Fully remote — or heavily remote — can generate loneliness."

There's a looming climate crisis

The world is trying to avoid the worst consequences of global warming by cutting back on carbon emissions.

Whether remote work will help the US move towards its climate goals remains to be seen. Less commuting means less driving of gas-powered vehicles, but it also means more people using heat and air conditioning when they're working at home. And when hybrid workers move further from their place of work, their occasional commutes become longer — potentially offsetting any emissions improvements.

Bloom says remote work "probably" contributes to lower emissions, but that the research on this is complicated.