Pennsylvania is home to one of the likely 'tipping-point' districts in the midterm elections. Voters and experts explain what's at stake for abortion, inflation, and control of Congress.
- Democrats currently control the House, but that could change after the midterm elections.
- There's a competitive race between Susan Wild and Lisa Scheller in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District.
All eyes are on who will end up controlling Congress following next week's midterm elections.
Polling suggests a very close election, with Republicans favored to win the House and the Senate up for grabs, according to FiveThirtyEight. In such a close election, the swing districts and states where Democrats and Republicans are evenly balanced can determine the political future of the country.
One of those swing districts within a swing state is Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, located in the eastern part of the state. With the district's House race and the state's Senate race both in a dead heat, we asked voters and experts in the area what issues are most important to them as the election draws near.
Fadia Halma, a Democrat in the district who has already submitted her mail-in ballot, is one voter who's worried about what a Republican-controlled Senate could mean.
Halma, who is the parliamentarian of the Lehigh County Democratic Committee, described a "scenario for disaster" in the event of a Republican-controlled Senate — one featuring less gun control, restricted abortion rights, and banned books.
Democrats currently control the "closely divided" House and it's a "clear opportunity, if you will, for switched party control," Christopher Borick, a political-science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania, said.
"Any time that seems to be in play in a congressional election, you start turning to the races that could make a difference," Borick, who's also the director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion and a political independent, told Insider. "And by most metrics, if you're looking at the 7th Congressional District in Pennsylvania, it fits the bill."
According to FiveThirtyEight, Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District — which includes Northampton County, Lehigh County, Carbon County, and some parts of Monroe — is one of "10 most likely 'tipping-point' districts in the 2022 House election."
As Reuters reported, lost Democratic control of at least one chamber could block legislation on things like policing, family leave, and abortion. If Republicans have a House majority, it could mean that additional aid for Ukraine would be tougher to pass, per a conversation with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy with Punchbowl News.
A battle between two House candidates could determine Congress' fate
According to FiveThirtyEight at the time of reporting, the race is a "dead heat" for who will win the house seat in this district between the Republican challenger Lisa Scheller and the Democrat incumbent Susan Wild. It's a rematch from 2020 when Wild narrowly beat Scheller with 52% of the vote. The district is also located in one of the states that Politico notes will determine who will control the Senate.
Borick said he wouldn't be surprised if either Scheller or Wild wins.
"It's just that kind of district, it's that kind of cycle," Borick said. "I can go down the list and check things: incumbency, check Wild; inflation, check Scheller; district reconfiguration, check Scheller; abortion issue, check Wild."
Samuel Chen, a Republican, is the principal director of the campaign-strategy firm The Liddell Group. Chen had worked for Pennsylvania's retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey in his Senate office. Congressional candidate Kevin Dellicker, who made an unsuccessful bid for the GOP nomination in the district earlier this year, is a past client of Chen's.
Chen thinks Republicans will be able to get the seats needed and ultimately control the House.
"Every year, you hear candidates say, 'This is the most important election in our lifetime,' and they're always wrong. It's overhyped," Chen, who is also a political strategist and an assistant professor of political science at Northampton Community College, told Insider. "But this year is important, specifically because of the way the House and Senate federally are currently broken down."
Chen added that there's "tight margins" in both the Senate and the House right now and also noted that "traditionally speaking in midterm elections, the party of the president loses seats."
"The president's party almost always suffers a net loss of US House seats in midterm elections," Jeffrey Jones of Gallup wrote in a 2018 post. "However, losses tend to be much steeper when the president is unpopular."
The Pennsylvania Senate race is also hotly contested
With the Republican Toomey retiring, CNN projected Pennsylvania could flip; NPR agreed, saying it's the "most likely Senate seat to change hands." According to FiveThirtyEight at the time of reporting, it's a "dead heat" between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz.
"Dr. Oz is surging, but Democrats are throwing a barrage of late spending into Pennsylvania to stop his momentum," Steven Law, the president of the Republican-supporting Senate Leadership Fund independent Super PAC, recently said. "This is a must-win race where we have to consolidate our firepower to ensure Oz gets over the top. We believe if we win Pennsylvania, we win the majority."
Chen said that Oz is "continuing to close on" Fetterman, though, because Pennsylvania voters, "especially in the Lehigh Valley, are willing to split their tickets."
This may be the case for people concerned about elevated inflation and costs.
"There are Democrats who look at Lisa Scheller favorably because she has been the business owner, and they feel that as a business owner, she understands the challenges of inflation more than Congressman Wild who has been an attorney and in the government her entire career," Chen said.
But this could also be the case for Republicans who split their ticket and don't end up voting for Scheller given her work in China.
"A lot of Republicans say, 'Hey, we go after President Biden for we think he's a little bit too cozy with the communist government in China,'" Chen said. "'How can we vote for somebody who is doing business with them?'"
Pennsylvania also isn't the only state hosting a competitive Senate race, adding pressure for Democrats who want to keep control and Republicans who want to gain control.
Voters are worried about inflation and abortion
Abortion and inflation are two main issues voters in the district are thinking about, according to a recent Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion/Morning Call poll of 404 likely voters. That poll showed 34% of surveyed voters listed inflation as their most important issue in the election, followed by 28% of surveyed voters who named abortion. The rest of the responses fell in the single digits.
"I think it's important to remember that voters vote on issues that impact them in their everyday lives," Chen said. "And so things like COVID-19 impacted every person, whether it was through business or through them getting sick or losing a loved one. And things like inflation will impact every single person in this country. And so that's gonna be front of mind for these voters."
The overturning of Roe v. Wade in June is why abortion is a key issue for some voters at the district, state, and national levels.
"There's no doubt that what happened earlier this year at the Supreme Court catapulted abortion into the top tier of issues in the cycle," Borick said.
Borick added he's unsure if this top-tier issue will be "enough to lift all Democrats" and help Wild hold the seat, "but it's certainly going to lift them more than they otherwise would've seen."
Halma is concerned about women's rights and reproductive healthcare, adding she knew Wild "was working to defend" these rights.
"I'm raising very strong independent girls, and I believe it is their job to decide what's best for them and it's crucial to me, my family, that they have that right," Halma said.
Halma is also concerned about jobs in the Lehigh Valley, particularly high-paying jobs with healthcare, and the overall infrastructure of the Valley.
Julia LoConte is a high-school senior in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, who will be voting for the first time after having recently turned 18. She said the climate crisis and abortion will be two main issues she will be thinking about.
"When I vote, I will most likely lean more toward candidates who are willing to fight for the right to have an abortion in Pennsylvania and who want to help slow this country's negative effects on the environment," LoConte said.
Halma is also worried about the outcome given the multiple tight Senate races.
"Across the country there are several United States Senate races that are going to be tight," Halma said. "I am very nervous. I'm very nervous what it could potentially mean for Roe v. Wade, for women's healthcare, for LGBTQ communities."
Another concern Halma has is what this means for gun violence and access to guns.
"Those are all issues that if we don't maintain a United States Senate, control of the United States Senate, I think this country could be really in danger," Halma said.