Insider Today: Recession false alarm
- This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.
Welcome back to our Sunday edition, a roundup of some of our top stories. If we haven't met, hi — I'm an executive editor at Business Insider. I'm usually behind the scenes on our newsletters, but today I'm filling in while Dan takes some much-deserved PTO. (Hey, at least he isn't "quiet vacationing.")
On the agenda today:
- How Americans build wealth is changing. Some are missing out.
- Airbnb is losing some travelers to hotels.
- Investors are whispering about a "crazy" fix for Google's monopoly.
- Portfolio-company operators are the rising stars of private equity.
But first: Don't freak out just yet.
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This week's dispatch
Hold the alarm bells
Although the 4.3% US unemployment rate is the highest it's been in years — and even as some investors and economists voice recession concerns — it's not time to panic just yet, writes BI's Jacob Zinkula.
That's because the labor market is actually as good as it's been in decades. The share of working-age Americans with jobs is the highest it's been since 2001, fewer people than expected have been filing for unemployment, and the layoff rate is low compared to history. And that's before the Fed's highly anticipated rate cuts, which should boost the economy further.
A top economist at S&P Global Ratings even said in a note that any slowdown suggests a "normalization" of a previously red-hot labor market, rather than an economy on the brink of recession. BofA's chief economist also wrote in a recent note that a recession is "highly unlikely."
Even the famed economist Claudia Sahm — whose recession indicator, the Sahm Rule, has been flashing red — thinks we're not currently at risk (and that her rule might be giving off a false positive). She told BI's Madison Hoff: "The US economy is still growing. We are still adding jobs. We are spending even after inflation."
So if you're in freakout mode (which would be understandable, especially since the stock market went berserk just two weeks ago), know you can probably rest easy — for now.
A changing path to wealth
Americans who locked in a consistent paycheck, homeownership, and stock holdings have seen their wealth balloon recently. But if you're not in all three categories, you might have missed your chance.
BI spoke to several people who are actively looking for jobs, saving for homes, and investing more of their money than they used to. They shared how they're trying to build wealth — and what's held them back.
Airbnb is losing loyal customers
The short-term rental giant was at the top of its game following the COVID-19 lockdowns. However, Airbnb's stock recently dropped 14% in one day after it told investors to temper expectations for Q3 due to waning customer demand.
Between gripes over increasing prices and quality control, some former Airbnb diehards prefer the consistency of hotels. But CEO Brian Chesky has a plan to get them back.
How it aims to compete with hotels.
A "crazy" solution
Since the Justice Department ruled that Google is a monopoly, talk has swirled about possible remedies.
A few savvy investors are whispering about a revolutionary fix, which has to do with Google's search index. It's "crazy," according to one hedge-fund analyst — and it just might work.
Also read:
Move over, dealmakers
Dealmakers have long been the stars of private equity. But the PE business model is changing — giving rise to a new type of talent. Enter the portfolio-operations executive.
Unlike their jet-setting counterparts in dealmaking, they tend to remain behind the scenes, doing the dirty work of making sure these firms run smoothly.
Inside the rise of portfolio-company operators.
This week's quote:
"Some people genuinely love consulting. I think they're freaks."
— A Gen Z consultant at PwC, on how it's not a "passion industry."
More of this week's top reads:
- How Tom Brady's publicist became one of the most polarizing names in celebrity PR.
- What went disastrously wrong in Laxman Narasimhan's 17 months as CEO of Starbucks.
- How David Zaslav can save Warner Bros. Discovery as the cable bundle collapses.
- An editor explains why he canceled his Tesla Cybertruck order.
- Two former bankers turned their experience into HBO's most underrated show.
- Three owners of the Alexander brothers' beleaguered brokerage firm are jumping ship.
- Nate Silver on the 2024 race: "It's no longer Trump's election to lose."
AI's big marketing problem: People don't want to hear about it.
The Insider Today team: Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York. Joe Ciolli, executive editor, in Chicago. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.