- A number of different shocks could push the
US economy into a recession. Baby boomers and their $75 trillion nest egg could save the day.
The hope of avoiding a recession in the US heated up this year despite interest rates skyrocketing over the past 18 months. A good job market and strong consumer spending kept the US economy moving.
But now that the summer of Taylor Swift is over, any number of shocks could push it into a recession or save it with a soft landing.
It turns out that baby boomers, aged between 59 and 77, and their $75 trillion nest egg might play a role in keeping the economy afloat.
Older Americans are spending more than ever
Nearly 18% of the US population is 65 or older, the highest level since the Census Bureau began tracking the rate in 1920. However, boomers have about half of the combined net worth in the US at approximately $75 trillion. And they were responsible for 22% of all spending in 2022, according to the Labor Department's September survey of consumer expenditures.As boomers entered or neared the typical retirement age, there were fears that they would work and spend less and slow US GDP growth.
But it turns out boomers are spending freely. Spending by older households has increased by 34.5% since 1982. For younger generations, it was 16.5%.
Market veteran Ed Yardeni, founder of
"There's a $75 trillion-wide hole in the theory that consumers' running out of pandemic savings will sink the economy; that's the size of baby boomers' collective nest egg," Yardeni wrote. "What these seniors don't pass on to their heirs, they'll be spending in their Golden Years."
Boomers are benefiting from inflation and high interest rates
One of the major factors boosting the spending of older Americans is that they are not as weighed down by the current state of the economy.Boomers have less consumer debt and are less likely to be impacted by student loan payments. They also have more of a buffer than from the economic impact of inflation and higher interest rates than younger generations.
That's because much of the wealth accumulated by boomers is in real estate, about $18 trillion, according to Yardeni — more than the $15 trillion they have in pensions and just behind the $20 trillion they have in stocks.
While high interest rates and soaring prices for homes in recent years are terrible for young buyers, they are increasing the wealth of older Americans. Rising prices have given them more real-estate wealth than any other generation, a New York Time analysis of Fed data found.
Because boomers are more likely to own a home, they've locked in lower interest rates before the pandemic — that's if they aren't part of the 68% of adults 70 years and older who are mortgage-free.
Meanwhile, higher rates are helping older Americans grow their wealth in other ways. Typically, as people age, they are advised to put less of their money in higher-upside investments that come with more risk and instead purchase safer assets such as Treasury bonds.
While "safer" investments often have lower returns, yields on US government Treasury bonds recently reached the highest level since 2007. So older Americans who, in the past, would have been forced to sacrifice higher returns for safer investments can now get both.
More wealth and time to spend it
Some of the higher spending now seen from boomers is simply from the sheer volume of people in this group. But this cohort also has a penchant for spending more and enjoyinglife.Neil Howe, the economist, historian, and demographer who coined the term "millennial," previously told Insider that boomers grew up and developed a "live-for-today attitude."
"The boomer coming-of-age experience taught them that we should really trust your gut and focus more on what makes us feel good today," Howe said.
As more and more boomers enter retirement, they have more time and means to seek those pleasures, and the economy can thank them.