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Don't be fooled by strong economic growth. A recession could still be right around the corner.

Oct 24, 2023, 01:34 IST
Business Insider
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  • Raymond James expects a recession to hit the US economy within the next nine months.
  • The investment firm said it wouldn't be a surprise if the economy showed strong growth right before a recession started.
  • "In the last 12 recessions, the quarter before the economy went into a recession, growth was positive and robust."
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Investors shouldn't be fooled by strong GDP growth in the next quarter or two, as an economic recession could still be right around the corner.

That's based on the fact that prior recessions saw solid economic growth in the quarter right before the recession started, according to data from Raymond James.

"In the last 12 recessions, the quarter before the economy went into a recession, growth was positive and robust—registering an average growth rate of 2.6%. The quarter the recession starts saw an average contraction of 3.5%," Raymond James chief investment officer Larry Adam said in a recent note.

Raymond James

Strong economic growth is expected in the third-quarter, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow estimate currently standing at 5.4%, well above consensus forecast of about 3.5%.

But this quarter's likely strong GDP growth, which will be revealed Thursday morning, isn't enough to drive Adam away from his thesis that a recession will hit the economy within the next nine months. He offered three looming risks investors should watch, and he's not alone in his view.

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Meanwhile, famed bond investor Bill Gross said on Monday that he expects the US to enter a recession by the end of this year, citing an uptrend in auto delinquencies and "regional bank carnage."

"US economy slowing significantly," Gross said.

Other threats to the economy Wall Street has flagged include the Fed's higher-for-longer rate stance, a slowdown in the US consumer, and rising geopolitical risks.

But even amid all of those risks, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel said investors should continue to favor stocks over bonds.

"What is the most famous saying in the [market]? That stocks climb the wall of worry, and when there's no clouds in the sky you're buying too high. I really think geopolitical risk is in the long run an opportunity to buy stocks, not to sell stocks," Siegel said on Monday.

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