The economy was robust in 2023, with many economists saying the US will soon achieve the long-awaited "soft landing." But leading up to the 2024 presidential election, much of the country is still gloomy about the US economy.
At the end of 2022, many leading economists and banks were predicting a recession by the end of 2023. However, inflation came down a lot amid steady job growth and a spike in manufacturing investment. Additionally, the racial wage and net worth gaps became smaller while consumer spending remained strong.
On the flipside, mortgage rates remain elevated, student-loan payments restarted, and inflation remains high for many daily expenses such as food, shelter, and "fun" things like subscriptions and concerts.
Shannon Seery Grein, vice president and economist at Wells Fargo, told Business Insider the bank is expecting a slight downturn in the economy in 2024, but nothing too painful.
"We also look for the recent moderation in the labor market to continue and lead to outright layoffs by the middle of next year consistent with recession," Seery Grein said. "That said, if the economy does indeed fall into recession next year, we anticipate the contraction to be mild by historic standards, largely due to the decent financial position of households and some labor-hoarding effects among businesses."
Economists are hoping for a relatively uneventful — or "boring" — 2024. J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Goldman Sachs, and S&P Global all predict GDP growth of about or slightly above 2% as the economy enters its "final descent to a soft landing." Wells Fargo anticipates the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index — which is closely watched by the Fed — to average an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Business Insider took a look at nine things that define the economy as we head into 2024.