6 Fed rate cuts in a soft-landing scenario are a 'pipe dream,' Harvard economist says

• Six Fed rate cuts in a soft landing are a "pipe dream," Kenneth Rogoff told Bloomberg TV.
• In that scenario, two or three cuts are more likely, the Harvard economist added.

Markets have been frothing with really bullish bets on Fed rate cuts, but some of those wagers are flat out wrong, a Harvard economist said.

According to Kenneth Rogoff, those betting on six rate cuts are unlikely to see their predictions realized.

"The six rate cuts — that's a pipe dream if we have a soft landing," he said on Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. "That's not happening."

What's more likely is that the central bank slashes rates two or three times this year and eventually sends interest rates to 3.5% by the end of the cutting cycle, according to Rogoff, who is also a former IMF chief economist.

The first half of January has already poured cold water on some of the dovish bets, with the stock rally losing some of its steam. Hotter-than-expected inflation data has also helped trim rate cut expectations.

If there's anything markets can be sure about, Rogoff said, it's that the market consensus is likely going to be wrong.

For example, in the off chance the Fed totally blunders the soft landing and triggers a recession, there could be a whole lot more rate cuts than markets expect.

"If we get a deep recession, definitely it could happen, they will cut rates a lot, not six times, they could cut rates 15 times," he predicted.

That hypothetical could drive rates all the way to 1% — something the majority of the market isn't expecting.

Rogoff has previously opined that 2024 will be a rocky year for global economies, buffeted by economic woes in China and more US fiscal splurges. And investors shouldn't hope that interest rates will ever return to ultra-low levels.