Shoppers browse in a supermarket while wearing masks to help slow the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in north St. Louis, Missouri.Lawrence Bryant/Reuters
- Headline inflation is soaring, but other data points suggest price growth will soon cool.
- Shortages and year-over-year comparisons have contributed to elevated inflation readings, Goldman Sachs said.
- Presented below are three charts detailing why inflation isn't as strong as main gauges make it seem.
The specter of inflation might not be as scary as many anticipated.
Gauges of nationwide price growth show inflation hitting its fastest rate since 2008 as the economy reopens and businesses struggle with supply shortages. Yet underlying dynamics aren't so clear-cut, economists at Goldman Sachs said in a Wednesday note.
For one, much of the overshoot seen in recent months is linked to production bottlenecks. Used car prices, for example, have surged more than any other category as the global semiconductor shortage curbs vehicle manufacturing.
The unusual nature of the pandemic economy also makes measuring inflation more difficult. With the country still reopening, spending is quickly shifting from goods to services.
It's likely that, after accounting for some pandemic-related trends, inflation is weaker than headline gauges suggest, economists led by Jan Hatzius said. Here are three charts revealing how inflation is a smaller danger than experts feared.