21 states where recession bells are ringing after unemployment jumps
Theron Mohamed
- Rising unemployment in nearly half of US states points to a recession this year, one economist says.
- 21 states have seen a jump in joblessness over the last year, Piper Sandler's Nancy Lazar told BI.
Unemployment has risen sharply in nearly half of US states, paving the way for a recession later this year, one top economist says.
Piper Sandler's chief global economist, Nancy Lazar, highlighted 21 states to Business Insider where three-month average unemployment has risen by at least 0.5 percentage points over the past 12 months. The states in question account for over 40% of US GDP.
When unemployment has jumped by that much, in that many states, a recession has almost always followed, Lazar said. The economic indicator is known as the "Sahm Rule."
Here are the 21 states signaling a recession may be on the way:
1. Rhode Island
Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.03%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.63%
Change: +1.40%
2. Connecticut
Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.47%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.33%
Change: +1.13%
3. Washington
Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.77%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.80%
Change: +0.97%
4. Louisiana
Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.30%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.37%
Change: +0.93%
5. Maine
Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.27%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.40%
Change: +0.87%
6. New Hampshire
Three-month average unemployment rate: 2.60%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 1.80%
Change: +0.80%
7. California
Three-month average unemployment rate: 5.30%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 4.50%
Change: +0.80%
8. West Virginia
Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.30%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.50%
Change: +0.80%
9. Oregon
Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.20%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.43%
Change: +0.77%
10. Alabama
Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.03%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.30%
Change: +0.73%
11. New Jersey
Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.77%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 4.03%
Change: +0.73%
12. Montana
Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.27%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.53%
Change: +0.73%
13. Alaska
Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.60%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.87%
Change: +0.73%
14. Arkansas
Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.50%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.83%
Change: +0.67%
15. Colorado
Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.63%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.00%
Change: +0.63%
16. Maryland
Three-month average unemployment rate: 2.50%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 1.90%
Change: +0.60%
17. Illinois
Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.80%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 4.20%
Change: +0.60%
18. Oklahoma
Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.53%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.97%
Change: +0.57%
19. Kentucky
Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.50%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 4.00%
Change: +0.50%
20. Ohio
Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.83%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.33%
Change: +0.50%
21. Missouri
Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.33%
Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.83%
Change: +0.50%
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